Political Hippo Circle Jerk - America, farg YEAH!

[ice grillin you]

There is absolutely no evidence that Bernie turns out new voters.  All evidence to this point mirrors '19 locally: the increase is all from suburban moderates/independents.

yup...people confuse Bernie getting a higher % if the young vote with turning out young voters...who cares if he gets the majority of people who make up 10% of the electorate

being somewhat popular with people who don't vote is not a good recipe for success 

[MDS]

can you both be right?

the increase in dem votes from 17 18 and 19 is def coalescing behind biden. *but* that doesnt mean they wont vote for sanders if hes on the ticket in november.

again all the polling is telling you biden and sanders are running even in pretty much every state and national poll. so all those moderates in the burbs who changed PREFER joe but would vote for bernie

[ice grillin you]

sanders ain't winning and never was...so it doesn't matter who wouldn't vote for him but if you think moderate pubs and independents will come out for a socialist like they would Biden you just don't know what you are talking about...and blacks never are coming out for Bernie...just farging read an exit poll...the Biden Bernie splits on age and race are insane

older and more conservative people don't want a revolution they want Donald trump gone and not only do they not like Bernie they don't think he can win...and I'd rather alienate a few Bernie bros. who were never voting for Biden than tons of black voters and moderate housewives...if you want to win a general you'd rather drive away 5% of the electorate than 25% of it

[MDS]

so all the people who say theyll vote for bernie over trump are lying?

theres no doubt the core of the party - black voters and suburban women - have picked joe. but again, if the choice is sanders or trump, polling has shown they will choose sanders. i legit dont care who it is. i will vote for romey's white trash neighbors over trump.

biden looks like he has this thing anyway so there you go

[ice grillin you]

Many moderates in both parties have straight up said they will not vote for a socialist they don't want revolution...suburban housewives and moms are relatively conservative...not republican conservative but minivan mom only care about their kids conservative and these people want the house on fire part of trump gone and they see Biden as calming and Bernie as another turn shtein in its head blow everything up president

blacks have never supported Bernie

that's not to say there arent against trump at all costs voters who will vote for anyone else vs trump ...we all are that..but the bottom line is Bernie will keep waaaaaay more potential people home than Biden will

[MDS]

thats a theory. bernie could easily still win WI-PA-MI. however.

there is no doubt joe is the better play in FL-AZ-GA-TX-NC. and about as good a play in the main 3. joe opens up the board more.

[Diomedes]

Biden has to ask Stacey Abrams to be his VP, right? 

[Munson]

can you both be right?

the increase in dem votes from 17 18 and 19 is def coalescing behind biden. *but* that doesnt mean they wont vote for sanders if hes on the ticket in november.

again all the polling is telling you biden and sanders are running even in pretty much every state and national poll. so all those moderates in the burbs who changed PREFER joe but would vote for bernie

^^^^This

[Munson]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1235047794077032448

Parscale giving away the game already..."even if the socialist isn't the nominee, the nominee will still be a socialist".

[Munson]

thats a theory. bernie could easily still win WI-PA-MI. however.

there is no doubt joe is the better play in FL-AZ-GA-TX-NC. and about as good a play in the main 3. joe opens up the board more.

Also worth pointing out that Bernie polls about as well as Biden in Texas at this point too. And for all his troubles with older black voters, he is crushing it with latino voters.

And on that note...Cali gets called for Bernie, pretty quickly. That means he's gonna run up the score there pretty well. Delegates could come out pretty close despite the early night narrative being Biden crushing it

[MDS]

california is really tough to tell because so much of it depends on the margin and whether or not warren and bloomberg hit 15%. if they do, that brings down bernie's potential delegate haul. but remember, biden is getting every delegate in AL and a huuuuuuge haul in VA and NC. he also hit 15 in VT to limit bernie's numbers there.

the numbers nerds are basically saying this is biden's world now. CA will takes weeks to count so the delegate #s are going to remain relatively unclear.

[Munson]

Yeah it's gonna be a while before we get all of CA unfortunately. Maybe Bernie can get lucky and have the news announced right before the next big primary day to give him a little momentum boost going into those states

[MDS]

im not sure warren or bloomberg falling behind delegate viability is going to register anywhere except on politics nerd twitter. the narrative coming out of ST is joementum. there isnt another debate until the 15th, 5 days after a bunch of states vote. 3/17 primary states are the next crack at a change.

[Rome]

Simply shocking.  Just wow.

[ice grillin you]

I can't get over the turnout in Virginia...in a majority of northern Virginia polling places more people voted by noon than did all day in 2016 and Biden got almost the same amount of votes yesterday as Hillary and Bernie got combined in 2016