Political Hippo Circle Jerk - America, farg YEAH!

[Rome]

Any chance we can start secession proceedings against these hillbillies?

Jesus Christ... what a disgrace.

[MDS]

Any chance we can start secession proceedings against these hillbillies?

Jesus Christ... what a disgrace.

Holy shtein and I thought Texas was bad

[ice grillin you]

Stack it up: Congress in gridlock. The bailouts. The economy in general. All that stuff going down with the commerce secretary and his car wrecks over the weekend. And yet all that aside, one particular issue still stands to provide the President with a fairly formidable obstacle: the race thing — or 'card' if you prefer.

It might make sense, especially as the U.S. and Florida each try to sue each other over the latter's supposed illegal voting practices. So: is racism still that big a deterrence to Obama getting re-elected?

Perhaps more importantly: could we be on the verge of finding a method to 'weed out' the racism factor altogether (with the help of Google and a Harvard researcher)? Historically polls have tried to detect racism through a number of ways. But as Geekosystem points out, the problem with using polls to determine the amount of/effect of racism in America' voting practices is twofold: a) lots of racists deny they're racists, and b)other racists would never admit their views to a poll-taking stranger they don't know.

That's where Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, a PhD student at Harvard, comes in. He's written a research paper called The Effects of Racial Animus on a Black Presidential Candidate: Using Google Search Data to Find What Surveys Miss, which details the outcome of a very extensive project.

In his thesis, Davidowitz basically spent a few years researching the amount of certain racially-charged search terms used state to state to get an idea of just how much racist sentiment was lying dormant and could hinder Obama's chances of success.

In other words, how many times the 'n' word was googled in Mississippi vs., say, Kentucky, could account for how racially charged sentiment was in one state vs. the next. Between 2004 and 2007, Davidowitz was able to "gauge cause-and-effect instead of mere correlation" and present his findings via the following list:


Here's how the author himself put his findings, which might clear up my convoluted introduction:

The baseline proxy that I use is the percentage of an area's total Google searches from 2004-2007 that included the word "stillupfront" or "stillupfronts." I choose the most salient word to constrain data-mining. I do not include data after 2007 to avoid capturing reverse causation, with dislike for Obama causing individuals to use racially charged language on Google. My regression analysis includes 196 of 210 media markets, encompassing more than 99 percent of American voters. The epithet is a common term used on Google. During the period 2004-2007, there were roughly the same number of Google searches that included the word "stillupfront(s)" as there were Google searches that included words and phrases such as "migraine(s)," "economist," "sweater," "Daily Show," and "Lakers." (Google data are case-insensitive.)

The most common searches including the epithet (such as "stillupfront jokes" and "I hate stillupfronts") return websites with derogatory material about African-Americans. The top hits for the top racially charged searches are nearly all textbook examples of antilocution, a majority group's sharing stereotype-based jokes using coarse language outside a minority group's presence...

...The estimated effect is somewhat larger when adding controls for an area's Google search volume for other terms that are moderately correlated with search volume for "stillupfront" but are not evidence for racial animus. In particular, I control for searches including other terms for African-Americans ("African American" and "stillupfront's mom," the alternate spelling used in nearly all rap songs that include the word) and profane language.

The results imply that, relative to the most racially tolerant areas in the United States, prejudice cost Obama between 3.1 percentage points and 5.0 percentage points of the national popular vote. This implies racial animus gave Obama's opponent roughly the equivalent of a home-state advantage country-wide.

While it's reasonable enough to suggest that Obama will fail for purely economic/political reasons, or list any of the top reasons mentioned, perhaps the real question is whether a poll like Davidowitz' is reliable/accurate.

It's interesting that the research was conducted between 2004 and 2007, which the author insists was to weed out 'reverse causation' i.e. people getting angry at Obama's presidency (or lack thereof) and then using some of those racist terms on Google.

While it's still too soon to tell what will happen in November, and the issues that will carry the most weight, the findings themselves could prove more than a little significant. Can't help but wonder if anything will actually come of it, but it also might be worth investing more time and research on this thesis, perhaps under the supervision of a different group of researchers.

[MDS]

Pennysltucky what

[ice grillin you]

the gap btwn wva and second place is incredible when you look at how incrementally small the rest of the list goes down

[PhillyPhreak54]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/19/joe-the-plumber-gun-control-holocaust_n_1609652.html

jesus

[General_Failure]

Why is he still a thing that people talk about?

[SD]

Why is he still a thing that people talk about?

Exactly. His 15 minutes was up 3 years ago.

[General_Failure]

In other news, ...

As the Department of Homeland Security
(DHS) continues to focus its limited enforcement resources on the removal of individuals who
pose a danger to national security or a risk to public safety, including aliens convicted of crimes,
with particular emphasis on violent criminals, felons, and repeat offenders, DHS will move to
exercise prosecutorial discretion to ensure that enforcement resources are not expended on low
priority cases, such as individuals who were brought to this country through no fault of their own
as children, have not been convicted of a felony offense, a significant misdemeanor offense, or
multiple misdemeanor offenses, and meet other key criteria. 

...

Who is eligible to receive deferred action under the Department's new directive?
Pursuant to the Secretary's June 15, 2012, memorandum, in order to be eligible for deferred action,
individuals must: 
1.) Have come to the United States under the age of sixteen; 
2.) Have continuously resided in the United States for at least five years preceding the date of this
memorandum and are present in the United States on the date of this memorandum; 
3.) Currently be in school, have graduated from high school, have obtained a general education
development certificate, or are honorably discharged veterans of the Coast Guard or Armed
Forces of the United States;  2
4.) Have not been convicted of a felony offense, a significant misdemeanor offense, multiple
misdemeanor offenses, or otherwise pose a threat to national security or public safety; 
5.) Not be above the age of 30.

[General_Failure]

US government ordered to reimburse Native Americans

In the 5-4 ruling, the Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the Navajo Indians and several other tribes must be paid in full for the services they provided in 1994-2001, including education, environmental protection and security.

[ice grillin you]

Why is he still a thing that people talk about?

hes running for congress

[SD]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/02/14/how_blue_america_subsidizes_red_america.html

How blue states subsidize red states

[ice grillin you]

ive been saying it forever...let all these anti government middle americans form their own state with no federal monies and lets see how they fare....i suspect it would take about 6 months before the bitching started and they realized how much better life is with a large federal government

[ice grillin you]

goldmine piece in the post this morning for the obama camp 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/romneys-bain-capital-invested-in-companies-that-moved-jobs-overseas/2012/06/21/gJQAsD9ptV_print.html


and now axelrizzy is crushing romney on this coneference call with reporters...legit attacks that might finally carry some weight with americans and hurt romney

[Tomahawk]

While the export of jobs has been disruptive for many workers and communities in the United States, outsourcing has been a powerful economic force. It has often helped lower the prices that American consumers pay for products and created a global supply chain that has made U.S. companies more nimble and profitable

Besides that, the jobs created overseas are zesty jobs that don't pay enough to live on anyway. Long gone are the days where a kid can graduate high school, get a job at the local factory, and retire 30 years later. Let's also bash technological advancements allowing those farging robots to take our jobs, or processes like lean manufacturing which allow wasteful or redundant jobs to be eliminated.

Don't get me wrong Romney is way worse of a person than Obama could probably ever dream to be, but shipping jobs overseas isn't a reason why. If you disagree, take solace in the fact that those jobs will soon be returning to our shores because our population won't be educated enough to do much of anything other than be a cheap source of labor.