Phillies Offseason Thread

[Sgt PSN]

They also need to address 1B, 3B and LF. 

[MDS]

this will be rube's deathblow but he obviously feels choke and utley are middle of the order machines.

unless laynce nix is the second coming of jayson werth its actually going to be pretty bad this year.

[Munson]

1B is going to be Ryan Howard and his 30 HR/100 RBI and they're jsut going to hope he gets hot in October.

They're still planning on Brown or AAAberry to take over LF, or at least hoping it happens

3B is the place they'll def have to go outside of the organization.

Basically, these next two years are them putting out superior pitching and hoping the line up gets hot at the right time to get another championship. 2014 is going to be the transition year, with Utley Chooch and Pence all coming off the books. At which point they'll probably throw their money into offense as it'll be expected that Doc and Cliff will be falling off performance wise by then. In that scenario, i'd like them to resign Pence, and see how far off Utley and Chooch fall over the next two years before deciding on going in other directions. They'll certainly have the money to put together a formidable offense if there are players out there, as the 2014 payroll is only 97 million at the moment (will be higher once Cole and Victorino sign). They'd prob have enough money to resign Pence and add at least one more big offensive piece.

[SD]

http://www.reclinergm.com/updated-phillies-payroll-analysis-and-org-depth-chart/

According to this, their payroll obligations for next year are only 127 million.  That leaves them 49 million to resign Hamels (20-25 mil range) and Victorino (what, like 17 mil AT MOST? And that's on the high end).

After that, the luxury tax goes up to 189 mil...so really the only year that's gonna be tough for them cash wise is next year, where they'll only have 7-12 million to fill out their roster after all the main guys are signed.

Rollins isn't on that as it was last updated in November. No idea if it's accurate but you can take that 127 number and put it closer to 140 with his deal. Add into it they're going to have to re-sign Hamels, Vic and find a 3rd baseman and now you're close to the luxury threshold.

[Munson]

I knew it was missing a name and completely forgot about JRoll. Thank you SD.  That was teh first one I could find that included Pappelbon.

The situation still remains more or less the same. The next two years they're basically rolling with what they got and hoping the pitching/getting lucky hot late in season will be enough to win it. 2014's choices are gonna be what determines how far they fall off (that and how far Doc and Lee fall off by then)

[Sgt PSN]

http://philliesnation.com/archives/2012/01/romero-settlement-validates-phils-title/

Apparently Romero "won" his court case regarding his positive test back in 08. 

[Sgt PSN]

1B is going to be Ryan Howard and his 30 HR/100 RBI and they're jsut going to hope he gets hot in October.

There is no guarantee this will happen in 2012 or ever again.  Howard will resume baseball "activities" I believe in about 6 weeks.  Thing is though is that it's his left achilles which is basically the foundation for all of his power.  It's safe to assume that whenever he does come back, he still won't be at 100% strength down there and likely won't be ever again.  Not to mention the loss of flexibility that comes with it which will impact his ability to rotate on it in the box and push off in the field.  His defense had finally gotten to an acceptable level and this is going to impact that as well.   

[Munson]

I only assume it will happen simply because even in his injury shortened seasons where he's looked craptacular (aka the last 2 years), he still managed to pull it off. Obviously how the heel heals (lulz) will play a big part in if he'll be able to do it this year, but once he's healthy, it wouldn't shock me if his powerful body could pull off at least another 2 seasons* of it before the power significantly drops off.


*The RBI's would also depend on those getting on base in front of him too, obviously

[QB Eagles]

http://philliesnation.com/archives/2012/01/romero-settlement-validates-phils-title/

Apparently Romero "won" his court case regarding his positive test back in 08. 

For the purpose of continuing to make tired roid puns and double entendres whenever his name is mentioned, I'm going to pretend I never read this.

[Sgt PSN]

I only assume it will happen simply because even in his injury shortened seasons where he's looked craptacular (aka the last 2 years), he still managed to pull it off. Obviously how the heel heals (lulz) will play a big part in if he'll be able to do it this year, but once he's healthy, it wouldn't shock me if his powerful body could pull off at least another 2 seasons* of it before the power significantly drops off.


*The RBI's would also depend on those getting on base in front of him too, obviously

I honestly think that 30 hr is the best we can ever hope for from him again and he gets that number because of the short porch in CBP.  I fully expect his road numbers to become pedestrian at best. 

I'm also going to do a 180 here and go with an ES-like prediction.  This injury could make Howard a better all around hitter because the power won't be there like it used to which will force him to be more selective at the plate and swing for contact more than power. 

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

Two sides of the story

Seems pretty clear that Amaro got Madson's number and clearly thought Papelbon was worth the difference.

[SD]

It's blatantly obvious what happened, Boras tried to play smug and smug called his bluff. They probably agreed to the deal in principle then Boras got greedy and tried to get more...probably tried to call around to gain other interest to raise his clients value, smug went elsewhere and Boras was stuck holding his dick in his hand.

[Munson]

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tSSu2Qy8G9pTSsguHAbeu-A&output=html

Found an updated one with Jimmy on the balance sheet. 108 mil next year with Hamels and Vic needing to be resigned and Pence in his final year of arb

those 3 alone will eat up...60 mil on the high end?? Leaving them around 10 mil to play with to fill out the roster...next year will def be the tightest year. 2014 brings them a lot of breathing room though. Maybe If they're lucky maybe Hamels will agree to a deal like Lee where the first year of his new contract would be a lower salary.

[Rome]

Re: Madson... I think GM's looked at his entire body of work and noticed that last year was the first year he didn't get pantsed when closing and no team but the Yankees is going to fork over 40-plus million for a setup guy slash ninth inning gas can.

I like Madson and think he's a great eighth inning guy but he's not a lockdown closer and I don't think he ever will be.

Thanks for oh '08 though.

[ice grillin you]

Replacing Lidge/Madson with Papelbon is a red herring. Whether you think or don't think that Amaro addressed the rest of the team adequately, a closer had to be signed and one was signed. Bada bing, bada farg you.

i dont think anyone has ever advocated that they go into this year without a closer

No, but you said...

closer was not an issue in the least...so what do they do?...they massively overpay for a closer while doing nothing to their offense

Which is wrong. They had to address closer. Also had to address shortstop.

you are mis understanding what im saying...im not saying closer didnt need to be addressed...im saying closer was not an issue last year as to why they lost...there was no reason to spend 50 mil on that position...they could have mariano rivera in his prime it wouldnt make one difference on this team

Re: Madson... I think GM's looked at his entire body of work and noticed that last year was the first year he didn't get pantsed when closing and no team but the Yankees is going to fork over 40-plus million for a setup guy slash ninth inning gas can.

I like Madson and think he's a great eighth inning guy but he's not a lockdown closer and I don't think he ever will be.

i get what you are saying regarding the length of madsons resume but he still was 32 for 34 last year...and smugs mistake was not in not giving madson 40 mil...it was spazzing out and giving paplebon 50 mil for no other reason than to say he got the best closer on the market i guess

whats most curious is that a month later smug did exactly the right thing with jimmy...he held back and let the market set itself...and then got a team friendly deal...and this was with a position where the phillies plan b was freddy farging galvis...in other words there was no plan b....

the closer market on the other hand was saturated...to put it in perspective paplebon got more money than the next three closers on the market combined