06/07 Phillies Offseason Thread

[Eagles_Legendz]

lee had like 660 ab's last year and something like 60 strikeouts....burrell in the same amount of ab's would have like 175

burrell hits .250 lee .300

phillies cant give burrell away with two years left on his deal....lee comanded a bidding way for a 5 year deal


they are not comparable players...not even close

beleeee dat!

Yes, they are.

Since 2002, Carlos Lee's OBP has been: .359, .331, .366, .324, and .355 respectively.  He has hit 26, 31, 31, 32, 37 HRs each of those years, with RBI's ranging from 80-116. 

Since 2002, Burrell's OBP has been: .376, .309, .365, .389, .388.  Looking at OBP, it seems clear that the .309 year was the abberation, and from a career perspective, he is superior at getting OB than Lee.  His HR totals in those years were: 37, 21, 24, 32, 29, with RBI totals ranging from 64-119 (though outside of '03, his lowest RBI total was 84).  Now, I'm not saying Burrell is a superstar, and I think he's overpaid, but he is a VERY comparable player to Carlos Lee.

He is on base at a higher clip and strikes out more.  Because we overpaid for one player of this caliber, that means that we should duplicate or accentuate our mistake once more?  I don't think so. 

Pass on Lee.

[ice grillin you]

even if all their other stats were equal...and they arent...lees are better...but for the sake of argument lets say they were all equal...

lee bats 50 pts higher and strikes out more than half as much...that alone makes him a much much better player

add in the fact burrell had chronic foot problems and cant move in the field and you now know why no team in the world will touch burrell while lee is getting 100 mil

i  cant believe we are even having this discussion

[SD_Eagle5]

Any guesses in a hypothetical situation where Burrell was a F/A what type of deal he would get? I'm guessing 7 years $75-80 million. Sounds absurd but that's the going rate.

[ice grillin you]

Any guesses in a hypothetical situation where Burrell was a F/A what type of deal he would get? I'm guessing 7 years $75-80 million

absolutely not....any team in the league can have him for free right now for a measly two years...granted the money is big but if he were anywhere close to as desirable as say carlos lee then any of the 10-12 teams that were interested in lee would immediately trade for burrell

[Eagles_Legendz]

even if all their other stats were equal...and they arent...lees are better...but for the sake of argument lets say they were all equal...

lee bats 50 pts higher and strikes out more than half as much...that alone makes him a much much better player

add in the fact burrell had chronic foot problems and cant move in the field and you now know why no team in the world will touch burrell while lee is getting 100 mil

i  cant believe we are even having this discussion

Actually, their stats are equal in some categories, Burrell's better in some and Lee in others.  Lee BATS about 25 pts higher historically, but anyone with any baseball IQ knows that OBP is more important, and Burrell is leagues ahead of Lee in that category.  The ONLY clear advantage that Lee possesses is that he strikeouts less.  That.  Is.  It.

[mpmcgraw]

igy in denial is funny

[ice grillin you]

The ONLY clear advantage that Lee possesses is that he strikeouts less.  That.  Is.  It.

can you explain to me then why the phillies cant give burrell away and if they do they have to take on half his salary while lee is banging out a 100 million dollar contract

or are you just smarter than every gm in the league

[Rome]

The Phillies can't rid themselves of Burrell because of his full NTC.  If he were exposed to all of the other 29 teams, he'd be gone quicker than poop through a goose.

Another factor might be his health.  He's had trouble with his feet for how long now?  Injuries like those simply don't heal themselves.

As for Lee, he's horrible in the outfield.  Yeah, he doesn't strike out much but he doesn't walk a whole lot either which Burrell, for all his faults, does quite a bit.

By my way of thinking, if the choices are Burrell for two more years or Carlos Lee for six at $100M, I'll take Burrell.

[ice grillin you]

By my way of thinking, if the choices are Burrell for two more years or Carlos Lee for six at $100M, I'll take Burrell.

which is why you post on a message board while the gm's in baseball sign carlos lee and run the other way from pat burrell

[Geowhizzer]

No Soriano
No Lee
No Estrada

The Phils very well may end up with exactly the same team they ended '06 with. 

[SunMo]

this is the Eagles 2006 offseason all over again

[mpmcgraw]

Fire Gillick.

Now. 

Abreu at 16 million for one year is a farging steal in this market.  farging incompetent moron we are in worse shape now than we were with Wade.  He has taken Wade's core players and made the players around them worse.

farging idiot.

[mpmcgraw]

The question came out of left field, which was appropriate in its way.

As Ryan Howard was basking in the glow of his MVP award last week, someone asked Howard who he'd like to see in the on-deck circle when he bats for the Phillies next season.

It was a good question, considering the Phillies seem to have spent their offseason chasing a big bat to hit behind Howard -- one who would presumably play left field in place of the woefully inadequate Pat Burrell.

Even after a season in which the Phillies led the league in runs scored but ranked 11th in ERA, fixing the lineup weirdly emerged as the Phillies' first priority -- all in the name of protecting Howard.

Howard neatly side-stepped it, crooking an eyebrow and saying: "I don't care."

And as usual, Howard has a pretty good read on this.

The protection thing?

It's a myth.

According to every substantive study in the history of man, the quality of the on-deck hitter has about zero effect on the hitter at the plate. Statisticians, pundits, seamheads and Sabremetricians (the good people from Society of American Baseball Research) have devoted countless hours to this, crunching the numbers from every possible angle, and no one seems to be able to prove that a good fifth hitter makes your fourth hitter any better -- or that a bad fifth hitter hurts your fourth hitter in any way.

Space does not allow us to reprint them all here, but a sampling is posted today on the Courier-Post Web site for your perusal and amusement.

It's just common sense, really. The hitter does not exist who will force a pitcher to throw more strikes to a .313-hitting, 58-homer behemoth. Mike Schmidt is retired, and Jimmy Foxx is dead. Pitchers aren't that dumb; they will work Howard carefully, walk him or challenge him based on the situation and the strategy of the moment no matter who bats fifth in this lineup.

Last season, when Howard was staggeringly unprotected, he hit 58 homers and the Phillies led the league in runs. Better protection means . . . what? Are we saying Howard didn't hit enough home runs last year? Can we argue that the best offense in the league just didn't score enough? Really?

"I was kind of proud of walking a hundred times, actually," Howard said. "It was the first time I ever had a hundred walks in a season. That's a feat for me; walks have always been hard to come by because I usually swing at a lot of pitches."

Howard walked just 33 times in 88 games in 2005, when he won the Rookie of the Year award.

"In the second half pitchers were very careful, and I had to be patient," Howard said. "The hard part is, you're coming up there knowing they're not going to give you much to hit -- so when you do get a pitch, you have to be ready to jump all over it."

Indeed, when Howard committed himself to being more selective and walking more, that's when he took off. Before the All-Star break, Howard hit .278 with 28 homers in 316 at-bats and 33 walks in 87 games. Then he won the home run derby, and pitchers became more aware of him.

As they worked Howard more carefully, Howard adjusted (the way he adapts at the plate is part of what makes him such a spectacular hitter). As he became more selective, he went from a dangerous hitter to the most valuable player in the league.

After the All-Star break, Howard walked a stunning 77 times in 75 games -- and he hit .355 with 30 homers in 265 at-bats. His production increased.

Walking Howard didn't hurt the Phillies at all -- after the All-Star break the Phillies were 31-13 when Howard drew a walk, including 15-5 when he walked more than once.

Now that doesn't mean the Phillies can just bat Abe Nunez behind Howard and go get 'em. Walks are not a bad thing, and protection is a myth -- but there is a reason managers put a lineup together a certain way.

"It matters, to a certain degree," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. "Pitchers are always going to be careful with Ryan and he has to be patient. But whoever hits behind him has got to have a good season."

This is where the hitters who bat behind Howard matter -- when pitchers walk him (and they will), there has to be a price to pay. The next hitter, and the next two or three hitters, have to produce when opposing pitchers put runners on base.

And it turns out the Phillies have a guy who was pretty good after opposing pitchers walked Howard. You want to guess who it is?

Brace yourself . . .

Pat Burrell hit .423 after opposing pitchers walked Howard, with a .769 slugging percentage.

Burrell had all sorts of problems last year, but producing after pitchers walked Howard was not one of them. In fact, you could argue that batting Burrell behind Howard helped rescue the Phillies' season.

Through July, with Bobby Abreu hitting third, Howard batted fifth (234 at-bats) or sixth (63 at-bats). The Phillies were abysmal after Howard walked -- led by David Bell and Aaron Rowand, the Phillies mustered a .182 batting average after a walk to Howard.

In August, after Abreu was traded, Howard moved to the fourth spot with Burrell primarily hitting fifth. And the lineup took off -- the Phillies batted .472 after a walk to Howard in August. The Phillies batted .279 after a walk to Howard in September, but that's a little misleading -- Burrell and Jeff Conine (Howard's primary "protection") combined to hit .382 after a walk to Howard.

Because Manuel was so quick to yank Burrell in the late innings, Howard often found himself batting ahead of the likes of Chris Roberson or Danny Sandoval -- which led to a lot of intentional walks in the late innings that didn't cost the opposition a bit.

But until then, the Phillies offense made great use of Howard's walks -- which is why they did, indeed, lead the league in runs scored.

"I'm a very competitive person," Howard said. "When they're taking the bat out of your hands by walking you, it's frustrating. But at the same time, they're putting you on base. You just hope the guy coming up next picks you up."

The Phillies, particularly Burrell, did just fine in that regard. And it all makes the case that chasing the protection myth instead of adding to the pitching staff would be a mistake for the Phillies.

[PhillyPhreak54]

My plan:

Trade for Manny Ramirez - Gillick has to re-think his stance on acquiring Manny. Burrell said he would waive his FNTC to go to Boston so if Boston would take him, include him in a package to get Manny. I would also throw in Ryan Madson and maybe a minor leaguer.

Sign Joe Borowski - he'd be the backup closer in case Flash went down again and also handle the 8th inning

Sign Danys Baez - he'd take over Madson's 7th inning role and can also close if needed

Sign Adam Eaton or Gil Meche - Randy Wolf is going to leave and I don't even want him back anyhow. Get either Eaton or Meche in the rotation.

Rollins
Victorino / Conine
Utley
Howard
Ramirez
Rowand
Helms / Nunez
Ruiz / Coste

Hamels
Myers
Lieber
Eaton / Meche
Moyer

Geary
Borowski
Baez
Gordon

Fill in the rest of the BP with a LH guy (Fultz?) and a mopup guy.

[MDS]

No way we trade for Manny. No shot.