NFL broadcast thread (née ABC to kill MNF?)

[Diomedes]

link

Will ABC Sack 'Monday Night Football'?
The struggling Disney-owned network must decide whether the benefits of airing the program outweigh the financial losses.
By Meg James
Times Staff Writer

August 23, 2004

Is Walt Disney Co. running out the clock on "Monday Night Football" on ABC?

The 34-year-old sports classic is ABC's most popular and longest-running prime-time program — a tradition that began in 1970 when ABC's legendary sports producer Roone Arledge put Howard Cosell, Don Meredith and Keith Jackson in the broadcast booth.

In recent years, though, the struggling Disney-owned network has been losing about $150 million annually on "Monday Night Football." ABC pays the National Football League $550 million a year for the rights to air the Monday matchups, but advertising revenue doesn't come close to covering the costs.

Now, with Disney executives under pressure to prove to Wall Street that they can reverse the fortunes of the fourth-place network and turn a profit by next year, they must decide whether the benefits of "Monday Night Football" outweigh the financial losses.

"ABC is between a rock and a hard place," said Brad Adgate, research director for the advertising buying firm Horizon Media. "It's been ABC's highest-rated show, but at some point they have to ask: How much is too much?"

The NFL has been meeting with network executives in recent weeks to start hammering out a new TV rights package that probably will exceed its current eight-year pacts, which total $17.6 billion and expire at the end of the 2005 football season. NFL executives had wanted to negotiate new agreements this fall, before they begin contract talks with the players union, because the network advertising market has been strong.

But Disney told the league it was not ready to deal. Instead, Disney executives want to wait until next year — closer to the October 2005 deadline — to renegotiate NFL contracts for ABC and sister network ESPN.

Disney also pays $600 million a year for ESPN's rights to Sunday night games, the Pro Bowl and other NFL-related events. Unlike ABC, Disney's cable sports empire doesn't lose money on football because ESPN is hugely profitable, collecting cable subscriber fees in addition to ad revenue.

"We do not expect formal talks to begin until the end of this upcoming season," said ABC Sports spokesman Mark Mandel. He declined to say whether Disney executives had reached a decision on whether to renew ABC's deal for "Monday Night Football."

Privately, Disney sources concede that the decision could "go either way." Despite being a marquee program with plenty of sentimental value, "Monday Night Football" has tripped up ABC's prime-time programmers, who struggle each year to come up with shows that will work in the show's time slot once the regular NFL season ends in late December.

NFL executives won't say how much of an annual increase they are seeking from the networks. Estimates range from as low as 5% to as high as 20%.

ABC, which analysts say is losing about $250 million a year, $150 million of that from "Monday Night Football," might be hard-pressed to swallow another gargantuan NFL fee increase — even though the program has been the network's top-rated show for the last three seasons.

Ratings for "Monday Night Football" have slipped over the last decade, although viewership has stabilized since 2002 with the hiring of John Madden to join play-by-play announcer Al Michaels.

"I don't think [ABC will] continue to absorb the kind of financial losses that 'Monday Night Football' has sustained," said sports marketing consultant Neal Pilson, a former head of CBS Sports.

"The economics of the television marketplace are not strong enough to support the cost of the NFL contract, and it doesn't look like it's going to get any better," Pilson said. "This is a marketplace with no set prices, no rate cards. It's what people will pay for the rights to broadcast these games."

The NFL's two other broadcast partners — Viacom Inc.'s CBS and News Corp.'s Fox Broadcasting Co. — are happy to have football and willing to renew their rights packages, network sources say, despite the sometimes lopsided economics of football.

Two years ago, News Corp. took a $387-million charge against its earnings for losses on its eight-year, $4.4-billion NFL contract. But that didn't faze media mogul Rupert Murdoch or his Fox network, which pays the league $550 million a year for its package.

Fox has long had a soft spot for the NFL. The upstart network didn't get much respect in the industry until 1994, when it beat out CBS and grabbed the weekend National Football Conference games and playoffs for $395 million a year. The NFL would become Fox's ticket to the big time, bringing new affiliate stations and higher ad revenue.

"Fox built their business on losing money on the NFL," said Paul Swangard, managing director of the Warsaw Sports Marketing Center at the University of Oregon. "The thought has been that a network isn't really a major network unless it has major sports as part of its programming package."

CBS found that out the hard way. After the network lost out to Fox, CBS executives watched affiliate stations defect and their prime-time fortunes plummet. Four years later, when the NFL contract came up again, CBS was willing to write a big check.

CBS now pays $500 million a year for the rights to American Football Conference games and considers it money well spent. CBS maintains that it makes a small profit on football when factoring in the benefits to local stations. The network credits the NFL games for attracting younger viewers and giving it a platform to tout its prime-time shows, such as the popular "Everybody Loves Raymond."

There are several scenarios for how the NFL might divvy up its next TV rights package, according to sources close to the negotiations.

Disney might move "Monday Night Football" to ESPN and give up the cable channel's Sunday night package. That could create an opportunity for another cable channel, such as Time Warner Inc.'s TNT.

The NFL might schedule fewer Sunday night games. That way the league could reintroduce prime-time games on Thursday nights, when advertisers are willing to pay higher rates to reach viewers before the weekend.

One wild card is whether NBC Universal, which lost football in 1998, would be willing to get back into the game if "Monday Night Football" or another NFL package becomes available. Top executives at the General Electric Co.-owned network have met with NFL officials, although network executives stress that they're not willing to lose hundreds of millions of dollars just to have football.

Since NBC's association with the NFL ended, the company has added several cable channels. Sources say NBC executives might be interested in an NFL package for their newly acquired USA Network. Putting football on USA could give NBC more leverage to negotiate higher cable subscriber fees for that channel.

In the end, though, the NFL has an interest in maintaining its current partnership.

"The NFL and ABC created the longest-running prime-time entertainment series in television history," NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue said in a statement, in response to questions about the current contract negotiations.

And ABC might not be willing to part with its most durable program.

" 'Monday Night Football' is a good investment for ABC," said Dean Bonham, chief executive of Bonham Group, a Denver-based sports marketing firm. "It's a great property and one of the longest-lasting traditions in all of sports. And [it] reaches an important audience, particularly young men."

The value of fetching such a large male audience is hard to ignore, said Jason Maltby, co-executive director for national TV buying for ad agency MindShare.

"Shows that deliver that many men are few and far between," Maltby said. "The ultimate value that ABC gets is the ability to cross-promote their other shows."

Although sports contracts have become increasingly expensive, there might be a payoff down the road, said media analyst Tom Wolzien of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. If ad-zapping, TiVo-like recording devices become more mainstream, advertisers probably will pay a premium to advertise on programs such as live sports that viewers will watch in real time.

"Over time, what the networks can charge for commercials during live sports can be bid up," Wolzien predicted.

Some owners of ABC affiliate stations, their patience wearing thin as the network's sinking prime-time ratings have affected their revenue, say re-upping for "Monday Night Football" should be a no-brainer. In recent years, ABC affiliate stations have chipped in $34 million to help pay for ABC's NFL contract.

"If they are serious about fixing the network — and I think they are — then fixing the network doesn't equate to losing 'Monday Night Football,' " said Darrell Brown, general manager of ABC affiliate KMGH-TV Channel 7 in Denver.

[Philly_Crew]

I can't imagine ABC losing that amount of money going forward but you would think they could negotiate something.  Otherwise, I like the idea of a Thursday game and maybe NBC could pick up MNF.

[MURP]

i dont see what the big issue is with them.  If they lose 150 million a year, why the hell do they keep doing it.

[Wingspan]

to me it sounds like the only reason ABC loses so much money on the deal is because of the boneheads running the network havent figured out the same ways to make it work as CBS and FOX have.

CBS and FOX have been able to successfully cross promote good shows that the same people will watch and turn a loss-leader in the NFL into profits from other shows that may not have been exposed if it werent advertised during the NFL broadcasts, like CSI, Without a Trace, 24, the sheild(FX), but really...does anyone watch anything on ABC other than MNF? how much regis and drew carey can 1 person take?

[General_Failure]

Maybe if their other shows didn't suck so bad people would watch them. I won't watch that stupid people trapped on an island show after the way they advertised it.

[RomeyRome]

Disney is the problem, they need to get out of there, FAST!   Let another channel do it, or leave ABC alltogether, but Disney needs to back off.  They are the last company that should be running the channel that shows MNF.

[MDS]

I don't think you can blame ABC's incompetence on the decline in MNF's populairty 100%. They deserve a large portion of the blame, but not all of it. Think about MNF in the 70's and 80's to now. Now you have the parity in the league, and the fact that no one has any idea whose goin be good or in the playoff race come November. They schedule these things in April, so if a crappy game that was thought of to be good comes up, their screwed.

Another major part of it is the fact that fans can watch so much more football than they used to. In the 70's you got to see maybe 2 games a week. Now, you can watch every game. There are 3 games every Sunday afternoon, one sunday night and one monday night. Cossell doing the highlights was also a big draw, because thats the only way you used to be able to see the highlights from around the league. Now theres NFL Primetime, millions of highlight shows, Monday Night Countdown, etc.

Right now MNF is coming down to if the matchup is good, and if they game is good. Thats the only way they can get the ratings they used to. People used to stay in, stop what their doing and watch MNF. Now alot of people are "footballed out" by monday night, since they watched it all day sunday. They dont need to watch the entire game. They could check in and out and watch the 4th qtr if its a good game.

SNF has been succesful mainly because its ESPN. You watch Sportscenter, PTI, all the shows on the network and see constant promos for the sunday night game. They have a very strong leadin of Primetime, and freakin 90 minute Sportscenter follows it. The game is trapped in between two huge shows, so they grab in extra viewers right there. Not to mention, alot of people stay in Sunday night and have nothing better to do than watch football.

Since cable is becoming more and more popular, I wouldn't mind seeing MNF go to ESPN. I would love for a thursday game, even a friday. Being a football nut, the more games on tv, the better.

[General_Failure]

No, the biggest drop in MNF's ratings was (and probably still is) wrestling.

[RomeyRome]

No, the biggest drop in MNF's ratings was (and probably still is) wrestling.

[Ed McMahon voice] You are correct sir! [/Ed McMahon voice]

I know that is the real problem, but Disney sucks and needs to get it's nose out of football!

On another football - TV related note:

Here's your precious Comcast!

owboys | 24-Hour Cable Channel Coming? - from www.KFFL.com
Tue, 24 Aug 2004 09:38:28 -0700

Clarence E. Hill Jr., of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, reports the Dallas Cowboys and Comcast Corporation are expected to make a formal announcement, possibly as soon as Wednesday, Aug. 25, on a 24-hour Cowboys channel, according to several sources. The sources said the Cowboys will produce four to six hours of original programming, including the 'Jerry Jones Show' and 'Cowboys Huddle,' which features head coach Bill Parcells. The team might also show their preseason games and Parcells' daily news conferences. Outside of the original programming, the channel could air reruns of past games and Cowboys Broadcasting Network programs. The channel is expected to be available this season to roughly 500,000 Comcast cable subscribers in the Fort Worth-Dallas area.

Way to go Comcast

[General_Failure]

More mush for the masses in Dallas. As long as I don't have to see it I'm cool with them milking suckers for everything they've got ... hey, I don't have cable.

[Who Dey]

Hey, as long as we get our game televised before they decide to pull the plug, its cool by me...

[Wingspan]

them losing money isnt about the actual ratings. MNF is the highest rated show on ABC, and the highest rated show for the time slot. while also the highest rated football broacasts of the regular season, yet they lose money? the problem being that they dont pull in enough money from ads to compensate for the production. (which is common for your run of the mill NFL broadcasts)

if all of the networks did as they did, they would lose money too. the other networks use the huge audience of sunday football to pull them into their other shows which non-coinsidentally are really good shows in some cases, to boost the ratings around the other timeslots. MNF is by far the highest rated show on ABC. ABC has been terrible for years. there are many more people that watch the MNF broadcasts than there were in the 70's, but the ratings are lower because there are even more that watch other shows (not everyone in the country was able to get any TV before cable came to their areas).

they have also had bad luck as their one sitcom that was actually starting to make a profit for them was 8 Simple Rules, and then John Ritter passed away and the show went downhill.

ABC's programming stinks, mostly due to the disney connection. CBS, FOX all hype their own shows as well as their cable partener stations shows, ABC's cable partners include stations the disney channel which would have NO effect and would be a waste of time to promo on MNF. they have ESPN, but that is already maxed out.

the popularity of the NFL is at an all time high, but ABC are the only nimrods that cant seem to make it work for them. how is ABC the ONLY outlet that has a NFL licence crying about not being able to make money?

[RomeyRome]

Hey, as long as we get our game televised before they decide to pull the plug, its cool by me...

I think that pic of Carson Palmer needs to be a little bigger

[TexasEagle]

Maybe if their other shows didn't suck so bad people would watch them. I won't watch that stupid people trapped on an island show after the way they advertised it.

You mean that show 'Lost' or whatever? Yeah that looks like an engaging show right there... They should get some decent programming and maybe people would watch their crappy station. The only time I EVER turn on ABC is if there's some sporting event on that I want to watch.

[TexasEagle]

Right now MNF is coming down to if the matchup is good, and if they game is good. Thats the only way they can get the ratings they used to. People used to stay in, stop what their doing and watch MNF. Now alot of people are "footballed out" by monday night, since they watched it all day sunday. They dont need to watch the entire game. They could check in and out and watch the 4th qtr if its a good game.

I always watch MNF, I don't care who's playing - I even watch until the end of preseason games because I love watching football. I might not like the teams, but I love the game. I even watched that whole Dallas/ Skins suckfest a few years back and I watched the whole thing. Football fans will watch the games no matter who's playing. Hell if I could see every game played all weekend every weekend one after the other I would. ABC is losing money because their shows suck. They're worse than CBS right now.