Sixers-Pelicans Lottery Thread

[MDS]

gotta go full tank next year....you cant make the playoffs or you lose your first rounder and if you are gonna shoot for the lottery you might as well go for the gusto...if the kids are better than expected then so be it....but free agency this summer should basically be non existent and thad gotta go

they cant really try to tank. they will be starting 4 young ones and add a few veteran pieces to make it look good. internally they would love to win some games, make it interesting and miss the playoffs. but you cant surround the 4 with another D league roster.

remember the 15 free agent class is strong and they will have max contracts to give out. im guessing thats part of hinkie's plan, to at least be active in that. but really lets see who they draft + how they do and go from there. this is an exciting time for 1 philly sports team....finally...embrace it.

[ice grillin you]

gotta go full tank next year....you cant make the playoffs or you lose your first rounder and if you are gonna shoot for the lottery you might as well go for the gusto...if the kids are better than expected then so be it....but free agency this summer should basically be non existent and thad gotta go

but you cant surround the 4 with another D league roster.

you absolutely can and I think they will....I don't think hinkie magic will give away thad but ill be shocked if he isn't moved and replaced by a far worse player....that's how you tank next year

[MDS]

i dont see them doing it

they need to sell tickets and win games next year. sports is a business, homie.

[ice grillin you]

thad is not selling a single ticket next year

the extra three wins they get from him will not make a difference

the interest next year will be based in hope....not the number of wins....the media guide will have the four youngINS on it not young

plus i cant think of anyone in the sport who cares less about attendance or the business than hinkie magic and I cant think of many owners who care less about his team than josh harris....its a really nice combo....at least right now

[MDS]

they could trade thad i couldnt care less

im just saying i dont see them running 4 youngins out there unprotected. logistically it makes the most sense...they need that pick next year...but the free pass tank from the public/media only lasts so long.

[ice grillin you]

they have the built in excuse next year of not just losing the pick but that they have four legit young good players....that's all you will hear starting with the draft and then all next year....about this being the official start of the "process"

i think they could win less games next year and most people wouldn't give a damn

[MDS]

if they dont win even a little bit next year people wont be happy...theyll be calling wiggins/parket a bust.

youre being a romantic and wishing they outright tank. im trying to be a realist here, figuring hinkie will split the difference.

[ice grillin you]

you are confusing sixer fans with eagle

and im not being romantic im being smart and practical which is exactly what hinkie magic is all about

[BigEd76]

Exum is visiting for a workout next week.  Milwaukee is first this weekend, then Orlando after here....and he probably won't work out for anyone else

[ice grillin you]

looks like foot surgery for randle after the draft...will be down for two months

[ice grillin you]

this is the year to have two top ten and seven total picks...

If there is one idea that rings true in virtually every draft it is this: Using the word "consensus" around the NBA draft is a bit of a joke.

Occasionally, a prospect emerges who is so clearly better than anyone else in the draft -- see Anthony Davis in 2012, Blake Griffin in 2009, LeBron James in 2003, Yao Ming in 2002, Tim Duncan in 1997, Shaquille O'Neal in 1992 -- but more often than not, choosing who to draft, even at the top, can be a conflict-ridden enterprise.

This year is no exception. We are two weeks away from the draft, and there are still major debates running internally within every front office in the league. If teams can't agree, internally, on the order of draft prospects, how can we create a "consensus" ranking?

As hard as it is for NBA draftniks to believe, there is very little agreement within teams, let alone between them, on draft night.

Last year's lack of consensus centered on the weaknesses of the draft. The Cleveland Cavaliers were deciding between six players a week before the draft, and they finally decided to take Anthony Bennett on the day of the event. There was a feeling that you couldn't go right no matter who you chose in last year's draft.

This year, the opposite is true. With so many elite prospects to choose from, it's a wealth of prospects that seems to be throwing execs and scouts for a loop.

"I'm not sure you can go wrong," one NBA exec whose team is selecting in the top 5 said. "Wiggins, Embiid and Parker. I think they're all going to have great careers. I don't see how any of them fail if they can stay healthy."

So, with no clear consensus, who do you choose to draft?

NBA teams watch prospects play thousands of hours of games. They go to practice. Go to camps. Hire guys from MIT to create statistical solutions. Work out players, give them psychological tests, do background checks and conduct personal interviews. And still, there is very little consensus.

Factor in the debate between taking the "best player available" versus "team needs" and the situation muddies itself further.

To make sense of all this, the past few years I've chronicled a draft ranking system employed by several teams called the tier system. In the tier system, teams group players, based on overall talent, into tiers. Then, the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need. This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs.

A more detailed explanation of how the tier system works can be found here.

So what do the tiers look like this year? After talking to several general managers and scouts whose teams employ this system, here is how things are shaping up. Note that players are listed alphabetically in each tier.

Tier 1

Joel Embiid
Jabari Parker
Andrew Wiggins

Last year, we didn't have any player in this category. This category is usually reserved for guys who are sure-fire All-Stars or "franchise" players. Since 2009, only Griffin, John Wall and Davis have been ranked in this slot. This year, there are three players in Tier 1 -- as many as there have been in the last five years combined. All of them received Tier 1 votes from every GM, exec and scout I surveyed. So if there is any consensus out there, it's that there are three really great prizes in this year's draft.

Tier 2

Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh

Last year, Tier 2 also was empty for the first time since I've been doing this column. That should tell you something about how poorly regarded last year's class was. Tier 2 is reserved for players who are projected as potential All-Stars by scouts. They are typical high lottery picks in a normal draft. In 2012, Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist all got the nod as Tier 2 players. In 2011, Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams were in this tier. This year, six players are here, which is a high number (as is the case with having three players in Tier 1). Two of these players -- Exum and Vonleh -- even got a couple of votes for Tier 1.

This is where the strength of the draft really shines, in my opinion. This means that NBA GMs, scouts and execs believe that there could be as many as nine potential All-Stars in the draft class, with three of them being franchise players. You have to go back more than a decade -- to the 2003 draft, where eight players ended up making an All-Star team -- to get a draft that loaded. While none of the players on the list are LeBron James-type players, there is incredible value here.

Tier 3

Gary Harris
Doug McDermott
Nik Stauskas

In 2013, we put the top six players in the draft in Tier 3: Nerlens Noel, Anthony Bennett, Ben McLemore, Alex Len, Victor Oladipo and Otto Porter. That means that all nine guys listed in Tier 1 or Tier 2 would have been drafted ahead of the top six players in 2013.

This tier is usually reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers. This year, this tier is a little on the small side. While there were a number of votes for various players for this tier, these were the only three who had a consensus. None of the Tier 3 players were voted on for Tier 2 status, and none of them were voted for Tier 4; that makes things pretty clean. All three should be gone before the lottery is through, with McDermott, especially, looking like a lock for the Top 10.

Tier 4
Tyler Ennis
Rodney Hood
Zach LaVine
Jusuf Nurkic
Elfrid Payton
Adreian Payne
Kristaps Porzingis
James Young

Tier 4 typically includes late lottery picks to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft, or selections 10 through 20. These players project as either starters or top-tier rotation players.

Payton and Young got a small number of votes for Tier 3. Nurkic got a Tier 3 vote, as well. But the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Ennis and Payne were ranked as Tier 4 by every team I spoke with. LaVine, Hood, Nurkic and Porzingis had some Tier 5 votes, but the majority of their votes were in Tier 4.

Tier 5

Jordan Adams
Kyle Anderson
Clint Capela
Jordan Clarkson
Spencer Dinwiddie
Cleanthony Early
Jerami Grant
P.J. Hairston
Joe Harris
Artem Klimenko
K.J. McDaniels
Mitch McGary
Vasilije Micic
Shabazz Napier
Glenn Robinson III
Walter Tavares
Jarnell Stokes
T.J. Warren
C.J. Wilcox
Patric Young

This next group is a very large Tier 5, and it shows off the depth of the draft this year; the difference between the 20th pick in the draft and the 40th pick isn't particularly large.

There are a whopping 20 players in this group. At least 10 of these players won't hear their names called in the first round. This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players. These are players who are unlikely to start for good teams but could play a significant role coming off the bench for a team. A few teams had Anderson, Capela, Early, Hairston, Napier and Warren in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut.

Tier 6

Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Deonte Burton
Jahii Carson
Semaj Christon
DeAndre Daniels
C.J. Fair
Alessandro Gentile
Nick Johnson
Nikola Jokic
Rasmus Larsen
James Michael McAdoo
Jordan McRae
Johnny O'Bryant
Russ Smith

This tier has players who were listed as top-60 prospects by the majority of the teams I spoke with. Of the group, only Christon, Jokic and O'Bryant got some Tier 5 votes.

Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But the teams that run it have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool of gauging which players a team should draft.

[SD]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/sixers/Andrew-Wiggins-camp-prefers-Sixers-.html

[BigEd76]

Wiggins will be here Monday, Cleveland Wednesday and Milwaukee next Friday

[PhillyPhreak54]

http://mobile.philly.com/sports/sixers/?wss=/philly/sports/sixers&id=263091541

Conflicting reports on Embiid's physical in Cleveland

[SD]

Smokescreen