The coming financial crisis

[Seabiscuit36]

i think the housing market is fabulous...i just bought a brand new home for 75k less than it was going for last summer

i can't believe you used Fabulous

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

The problem is that this is not a normal cycle.  There were peaks and troughs in the last two decades, but the "sane" price was always around $125k.  Previous peaks were 10-15% deviations from this median.  We are now 80% above the median.  That's a long way to fall.

Sure, it's a long way to fall back to the actual median.  But you and I both know that's not going to happen, and even if it did, there is still SOME value to property.  A lot of idiots took a lot of bad loans on houses they couldn't afford, and it artificially drove the price up.  While a full correction would actually be much better for the long-term stability of the banking/mortgage industry AND for the cost of housing, it really fargs all of us in the ass that do own a home.  So, we know it won't completely correct.

I'm confused as to what you're trying to argue here anyway.  It's clear this is an extremely different scenario than the dot com boom/bust, because we are talking about tangible assets.  It's clear that a correction was necessary in the wildly-inflated price of housing.  It's clear that that actual fundamentals of the economy for most of us really haven't changed.

I suppose you just want Bush to come out and follow suit with the media and say how farged we are?  Explain to me how that would be beneficial in any way.

[ice grillin you]

<------ghetto fab

[Wingspan]

The only people that this housing market is potentially hurting (other than the ones who bit off more than they can chew) are those that are looking to downgrade where they live (meaning a smaller house...or house to condo transition...). Selling one and buying another house winds up about a 1:1 trade. And first time buyers are getting a bargain as well.

[ice grillin you]

The only people that this housing market is potentially hurting (other than the ones who bit off more than they can chew) are those that are looking to downgrade where they live (meaning a smaller house...or house to condo transition...). Selling one and buying another house winds up about a 1:1 trade. And first time buyers are getting a bargain as well.

the people it hurts are the people who bought during the housing explosion four five years ago and now for whatever reason HAVE to sell

[Cerevant]

My point was that this is not just part of a cycle, but a dramatic change that has no precedent in history.  As a result, assuming that it will just fix itself is a bit naive.

I agree that there is a fine line between causing an economic panic and fixing the problem, but you can engender confidence by showing that you understand the problem and that you have some concept of how to fix it.  The problem I have with McBush is that their plan seems to be to stay in a state of denial.  Cause, you know, fighting a war is fun and profitable!

[Wingspan]

The only people that this housing market is potentially hurting (other than the ones who bit off more than they can chew) are those that are looking to downgrade where they live (meaning a smaller house...or house to condo transition...). Selling one and buying another house winds up about a 1:1 trade. And first time buyers are getting a bargain as well.

the people it hurts are the people who bought during the housing explosion four five years ago and now for whatever reason HAVE to sell

Which is pretty much what I said.

[Father Demon]

My point was that this is not just part of a cycle, but a dramatic change that has no precedent in history.  As a result, assuming that it will just fix itself is a bit naive.

I agree that there is a fine line between causing an economic panic and fixing the problem, but you can engender confidence by showing that you understand the problem and that you have some concept of how to fix it.  The problem I have with McBush is that their plan seems to be to stay in a state of denial.  Cause, you know, fighting a war is fun and profitable!

Your posts used to be somewhat informative and insightful.  Now, everything you post is propaganda for Obama, and a strong, vile hate to anything either Bush or McCain stands for.  No one is 100% correct or 100% wrong, and your posts have degraded to the point of watching an Obama infomercial at 3:00 AM. 

At least talk about tits or something sometimes.

[rjs246]

Cerevant has always been a rah rah Obama guy, but I agree that we should talk about tits. And butts. Hooray for tits and butts.

[ice grillin you]

My point was that this is not just part of a cycle, but a dramatic change that has no precedent in history.  As a result, assuming that it will just fix itself is a bit naive.

I agree that there is a fine line between causing an economic panic and fixing the problem, but you can engender confidence by showing that you understand the problem and that you have some concept of how to fix it.  The problem I have with McBush is that their plan seems to be to stay in a state of denial.  Cause, you know, fighting a war is fun and profitable!

Your posts used to be somewhat informative and insightful.  Now, everything you post is propaganda for Obama, and a strong, vile hate to anything either Bush or McCain stands for.  No one is 100% correct or 100% wrong, and your posts have degraded to the point of watching an Obama infomercial at 3:00 AM. 

when have you been dookie...he was never not a schill for obama...i called him out on this a long time ago

[Father Demon]

I was talking pre-election season, when he used to talk about other stuff.  Now his Obamuslim (is that similar to McBush?) rhetoric is non-stop.

But I agree, IGY - you did call him out a long time ago.  I guess it took me longer to tire of the rhetoric than most.

Now, as discussed:

[ice grillin you]

yeah to be honest i never really noticed him before the primary....but once that kicked off he was untenable

[Seabiscuit36]

Prices in townhouses in my neighborhood are finally going back up.  I'm hoping that some of the people who are trying to sell at prices from a year and a half ago get it.  Then i'll be selling with about 40k in equity. 

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

Cerevant has always been a rah rah Obama guy, but I agree that we should talk about tits. And dude butts. Hooray for tits and dude butts.  I drive a Toyota Prius!  People fear me!

[Cerevant]

I did not bring Obama into this discussion.  I did say that I don't think that Bush and McCain's strategy of "its all in your head" will be successful.

Actually, I knew nothing about Obama before we were down to Obama vs. Hillary.  Early on I was very pro Gore and Paul curious.  I became an "Obama shill" as an exercise to come up with evidence that IGY completely wrong with his assertions that Obama had no chance to win the primary.

I am always open to logical debate, and am always willing to consider evidence supporting other views.  I would say that I have a number of views which are in direct conflict with the Obama platform.  I'm just sick of the US government being run by criminals. (Yes, you too Pelosi)

I stick to the assertion of a quote I made before: the worst case scenario is for either of these guys to get elected and to get everything they want.

That being said, I guess I haven't been doing a good enough job of pandering to my base.  Consider this my apology: