How to win in the NFL 101

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

Very interesting read...

5 Deadly Sins
1. trailing after 1st quarter
2. losing the turnover battle
3. allowing a 100-yard runner
4. allowing more sacks
5. losing time of possession

5 Big-time Myths
1. committing fewer penalties = win
2. higher yards-per-carry wins
3. #1 seed gets to Super Bowl
4. 300-yard passers usually win
5. a kick or punt return TD = win

[ice grillin you]

5 Deadly Sins
1. trailing after 1st quarter
2. losing the turnover battle
3. allowing a 100-yard runner
4. allowing more sacks
5. losing time of possession

aka lead after the second quarter...aka lead after the third quarter...aka play with a lead...aka score more points than the other team

stop nerding up the board with slop like this

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

stop nerding up the board with slop like this

I will, if you stop dumbing down the board with your brand of slop.

[rjs246]

stop nerding up the board with slop like this

Jesus, someone had their cheerio pissed in this morning.

[ice grillin you]

im just saying these lace heads like greg garber throw out these gay ass "sins" as if they mean something...i cant stand geeks like him

5 Deadly Sins

1. trailing after 1st quarter means youre trailing thus throwing the ball more

2. losing the turnover battle means youre trailing and throwing the ball thus more interceptions

3. allowing a 100-yard runner means youre trailing and the other team is running it more

4. allowing more sacks means youre trailing and throwing the ball more

5. losing time of possession means youre trailing and throwing the ball thus not running the clock down


can we just say  the deadly sin is not getting behind in the game and scoring more points than your opponent...instead of all this bill james type garbage

[MURP]

good read.   

[Cerevant]

Very interesting read...

Yes indeed, but what the analysts always miss, is considering which of these trends cause the outcome, and which are the effect of the outcome.  There's a web site that touted the "killer stat" for predicting the outcome of games - point differential.  Well no shtein - teams that win games are more likely to win games.

Interestingly, the Eagles have been the poster child for many of these truisims/fallacies recently...

5 Deadly Sins
1. trailing after 1st quarter

Cause - when you get behind early, you have to change your game plan, putting your team at a strategic disadvantage.  This is where game day coaching can make or break a team.  This is why Reid succeded last year and is failing miserably this year.

2. losing the turnover battle

Cause - this is a no-brainer.  Turnovers can often result in a two score reversal of fortune.

3. allowing a 100-yard runner

Effect - The rushing correlation comes from playing with a lead - see #1.  The Eagles proved this last year, having one of the worst rushing defenses and regularly giving up 250 yard rushing games.  I like to think of it as the modern day prevent defense, because the rushing game has two major disadvantages for a team behind:
1) kills the clock
2) less likely to get big plays

The Eagles dared other teams to waste their time running the ball last year.

4. allowing more sacks

Effect - you are going to give up more sacks if you are passing to catch up from an early deficit - not only more passing plays, but the play calling is predictable.  The closest I'll come to saying it is a cause is when it is a result of a severely talent deficient o-line or a problem with the game plan, and even then it isn't the sacks themselves that determine the outcome.

5. losing time of possession

Effect - again a result of playing from behind and relying too heavily on the passing game.  I wonder what the numbers look like if you compare the number of plays rather than time of possession...

5 Big-time Myths
1. committing fewer penalties = win

I think you might be able to make this a better predictor if you considered the types of penalties.  I would guess that defensive penalties hurt more than offensive ones.

2. higher yards-per-carry wins

The running game is important for the following reasons:
1) to make the offense less predictable - this gives the o-line an advantage blocking, makes the play-action work, keeps pressure off the QB...
2) to run time off the clock
3) to get first downs/touchdowns in short yardage situations

Rushing yards have limited useful effect for scoring.

3. #1 seed gets to Super Bowl

In a single elimination tournament, the best team doesn't always win.

4. 300-yard passers usually win

Are we seeing a trend here?

5. a kick or punt return TD = win

This is a little surprising.  I would guess that many of the games where teams win in spite of the above trends, the win comes after a ST or D touchdown.

I think this is why Andy is so stubborn about the run - the running game doesn't win games.  Strong early leads come from the passing game.  The problem is that you can't win games without a running game.

[Cerevant]

5 Deadly Sins
1. trailing after 1st quarter
2. losing the turnover battle
3. allowing a 100-yard runner
4. allowing more sacks
5. losing time of possession

aka lead after the second quarter...aka lead after the third quarter...aka play with a lead...aka score more points than the other team

stop nerding up the board with slop like this

I guess you win for expediency, but I managed to say the same thing without insulting anyone...

[ice grillin you]

but I managed to say the same thing without insulting anyone

ill email greg garber and apologize

[Tomahawk]

5 Deadly Sins
1. trailing after 1st quarter
2. losing the turnover battle
3. allowing a 100-yard runner
4. allowing more sacks
5. losing time of possession

aka lead after the second quarter...aka lead after the third quarter...aka play with a lead...aka score more points than the other team

stop nerding up the board with slop like this

I guess you win for expediency, but I managed to say the same thing without insulting anyone...

You're a HERO!!

[Larry]

TO ratio, yards per pass attempt, and 3rd-down conversions are the three essential stats to consider.  You can trash the rest.

That being said, recently coaches have been fiddling around with another figure:  number of big plays (20+ yard plays).   There seems to be a strong correlation between that and winning (the win/loss percentage is right around 80%, which is the same as the turnover ratio).

[Fan_Since_64]

Interesting stuff, thanks for posting 

The more Bill James- type stuff, the better! 

[QB Eagles]

Good idea for a column, but I didn't find any of the "truisms" and "myths" to be surprising in the least. 

In fact, my fantasy football strategy relies on Myth #4 being false. More interesting stat mining is found in the average TMQ column.

[Cerevant]

Good idea for a column, but I didn't find any of the "truisms" and "myths" to be surprising in the least. 

In fact, my fantasy football strategy relies on Myth #4 being false. More interesting stat mining is found in the average TMQ column.

Well, I'd imagine that 300yd passers do win most FF games...just not the real ones...

[henchmanUK]

"Is that number right?" asked Insider Rick Spielman, who spent five seasons as the Dolphins' general manager. "That's unbelievable.

"Still, it makes sense. If you're playing with a lead, you can play solid defense and run the ball and control the clock. Your odds of winning will always be better when you can control the clock."

It's nice to see that Rick Spielman is still a complete fargin' idiot.