Political Hippo Circle Jerk - America, farg YEAH!

[Cerevant]

In Michigan, Obama is currently leading McCain, while Hillary is trailing him.  It is quite ironic that Hillary is trying to include Michigan in her popular vote strategy.

[rjs246]

In Michigan, Obama is currently leading McCain, while Hillary is trailing him.  It is quite ironic that Hillary is trying to include Michigan in her popular vote strategy.

That's pretty interesting, actually. Go Barack.

[Cerevant]

Here's a better summary of my electability argument, with recent numbers.

As it stands now (a 3 person race), Hillary would win 291 electoral votes, while Obama only gets 264.  Both beat McCain, with Indiana being a dead tie.  Hillary gets the edge because of a projected win in Florida.

If you shift the polls 5% toward McCain, he beats either of them handily.

If you shift the polls 5% toward the Democrats, Obama gets 340 electoral votes to Clinton's 308.

So, unless you think that nothing will change when one of these candidates drops out, Obama has the bigger upside.  Hillary can win, but she cannot afford to lose ground in any of the states she currently holds.  Obama can make up for ground lost in states where Hillary has no shot.

Also, a bigger margin of victory would ensure that irregularities in one state will not disrupt the final outcome.

[ice grillin you]

the problem with obama and why he cant win is that all the reagan democrats....the lunch pail types...are going to flee for mccain in huge numbers...this will destroy the democrats in ohio and pa...and will really hurt in places like michigan...you cant lose in oh and pa and win the election especially if you give fla to the republicans which is likely

[Cerevant]

And what do you base that on?  Do you have any evidence to back up that claim?  Why would Regan Democrats change their minds after the primaries?  Are these people lying in the polls?

I'm all for intelligent debate, but your unsupported assertions are meaningless.

[ice grillin you]

you clearly dont know what a reagan democrat is...look it up and then ask yourself why it will happen

[Rome]

i don't know how unintelligent it is to suggest that lower and middle class white people will vote for an old conservative white republican before they would a young, charasmatic black liberal.

in fact, i'd say igy is dead on point there, opinion or not.

[Cerevant]

I'm not saying that isn't the case - but those voters have been supporting Clinton, and those voters are participating in polls that show Obama ahead in PA, Michigan and Wisconsin.  McCain has less than a 5 point lead in Ohio and Florida.  farging Texas is on the table with McCain only leading by Obama by 5 points (not included in my totals above).

Why would someone think that these candidates are going to do worse when they only have one opponent?

[ice grillin you]

i don't know how unintelligent it is to suggest that lower and middle class white people will vote for an old conservative white republican before they would a young, charasmatic black liberal.

in fact, i'd say igy is dead on point there, opinion or not.

they also are very pro military...about the only place they lean left is because the democratic party is pro union and workers rights...and barry isnt exactly seen as the savoir of the working class...in fact hate hillary all you want and she is scum but shes a brilliant politician and has somehow been able to paint obama as an elitist

[ice grillin you]

I'm not saying that isn't the case - but those voters have been supporting Clinton, and those voters are participating in polls that show Obama ahead in PA, Michigan and Wisconsin.  McCain has less than a 5 point lead in Ohio and Florida.  farging Texas is on the table with McCain only leading by Obama by 5 points (not included in my totals above).

Why would someone think that these candidates are going to do worse when they only have one opponent?

you care way to much about meaningless polls and not enough about the historical voting tendencies of different constituencies...especially in this election where the only thing you can count has been the unreliability of the polls

[Rome]

people respond to polls differently than they vote.  i pulled the curtain (so to speak) in 2004 and had my pen ready to go for kerry, but somehow, i just couldn't bring myself to vote for him.  so i voted libertarian instead.  if someone had asked me the day before if i was contemplating changing my mind (which was set on kerry, incidentally) then i would have responded "no."

but i got in there and something inside me wouldn't allow me to vote for that clown.

if you ask me right now will i vote for obama, then it's a 100% yes.  would i vote for hillary?  100% no.  would i vote for mccain - well, i don't know.  again, circumstances dictate how i will make my choice.  i think hillary would be catastrophic for this country, but there might be something in my mind when i go to pull the lever at the last second that changes my mind for me.

all i'm saying is, polls are meaningless for the most part.  hell, exit polls can't even be trusted because people lie like a motherfarger all the time in those as well.

[rjs246]

McCain vows to appoint more conservative Federal judges.

Like I've said before. This is the deal breaker for me on this clown. These judges will be in place long after McCain is out of office...

[Cerevant]

Individual polls are meaningless.  Yes, people lie and change their minds.

It doesn't change the fact that polls show trends, and they respond to current events.  While the polls changed significantly with time, none of the primaries had results drastically different than the final polls.  Hillary was supposed to win OH and PA - she did.  Texas was supposed to be close, it was.

Look at the PA primary - IGY's "Regan Democrats" voted 60-40 for Hillary throughout Pennsyltucky.  Are you saying that the 40% that voted for Obama are now going to turn around and vote for McCain?  Yes, Hillary is going to do better with that demographic, but that doesn't mean that Obama is going to get a goose egg there.

Right now, the biggest bias in the vs. McCain polls are people who are lying when they say that they will vote for McCain because their candidate did not win.  Even if that bias is zero - everyone who says that they will vote for McCain does - what is the logic behind a massive defection from Obama by the people who already voted for him?

What is more likely is that a percentage of the people who support Hillary (or Obama) will get over the hostility of the primaries, and go with the Party candidate.  To get the 5% shift I was talking about, you only need about 25% of the supporters of one candidate to go with the other.  I don't think I've seen an exit poll hit 50% on the crossover, let alone 75%.

[ice grillin you]

McCain vows to appoint more conservative Federal judges.

Like I've said before. This is the deal breaker for me on this clown. These judges will be in place long after McCain is out of office...

for forever ive been trying to tell people that the mccain of today is not the mccain of 2000 and before...not even close...hes not a third bush term but hes pretty close and getting closer...i actually have more respect for hillary than i do mccain...to use a anology...id rather have my    dressed in a hoodie than my    dressed in a three piece suit 

[rjs246]

Please try not to ruin my points by insisting that 'Conservative' is synonymous with 'Racist'. Thank you.