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Eagles => Eagles Talk => Topic started by: MURP on April 10, 2006, 12:36:02 PM

Title: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: MURP on April 10, 2006, 12:36:02 PM
Updated from last year.   I dont know if anything can be deduced from this breakdown, but it's fun to look at none the less.   

Eagles have had 58 draft picks since Reid signed on as coach.  Modrak did have some say back in the day, but apparently Reid had the final call from what we have heard.  Anyway, the Modrak equation doesnt matter that much in the breakdown IMO.

Position,Number selected, percentage of total picks under Reid (rounded), players names

WR- 8 - 14 %     McMullen,  Milons, Mitchell, Pinkston, Gari Scott, Na Brown, Troy Smith, R. Brown
DE-  6 - 10%     McDougle, Green, Raheem Brock, Burgess, John Frank, Cole
RB-  6 - 10%     Tapeh, Bruce Perry, Westy, CBUCK, Thomas Hamner, Moats
G -   6 - 10%    Trey Darilek, Adrien Clarke, Jeremy Bridges, Doug Brzezinski, Welbourn, S Young
S-    5 - 9 %      JR Reed, Norman Lejeune, Michael Lewis, Damon Moore, Considine
LB-  5 -  9%      Tyreo Harrion, Quinton Caver, Barry Gardner, McCoy, Bergeron
CB-  4 - 7 %      Dexter Wynn, Lito, Sheldon, Matt Ware
OT - 4 - 7%       Shawn Andrews, Bobbie Williams, Herremans, Armstrong
DT-  4 - 7%       Corey Simon, Pernell Davis, Patterson, Marshall
QB- 3 - 5%        McNabb, Feeley, Hall
C -  3 - 5%       Dominic Furio, Scott Peters, John Romero
TE-  3 - 5 %       LJ Smith, Tony Stewart, Jed Weaver
FB-  1 -  2%       Cecil Martin
K-    0
P -   0



I find it interesting that a coach who talks about how the guys upfront are the most important parts on the team has spent 24% of his draft picks on offensive skill positions in WR's and RB's. 
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: ice grillin you on April 10, 2006, 12:40:49 PM
nice breakdown


reid is very lucky he had that 2002 draft because without that he is bucket of shtein without the bucket

lol at the wr's
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: MadMarchHare on April 10, 2006, 12:41:13 PM
I think that analysis requires the round of drafting to be included.  Day 1 guys you expect to make the roster.  Day 2 guys you hope will make the roster.
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: PoopyfaceMcGee on April 10, 2006, 12:43:05 PM
Quote from: MURP on April 10, 2006, 12:36:02 PM
I find it interesting that a coach who talks about how the guys upfront are the most important parts on the team has spent 24% of his draft picks on offensive skill positions in WR's and RB's. 

You absolutely must weight the picks at least by day, preferably by round or even overall selection number, for those percentages to have any meaning whatsoever.  Basically, the pick of Bruce Perry in the 7th round counts equally to the pick of Corey Simon in the first, etc.
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: MURP on April 10, 2006, 12:46:22 PM
nah, ill just weigh them by number of players drafted overall.   If I wanted to get that technical Id have to also factor in that only 1 RB and 2 WR's start a game while 5 Olineman and 4 Dlineman start a game. 
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: ice grillin you on April 10, 2006, 12:47:20 PM
that is true
but i think we all know where these players were picked
and over a span of seven years when you have 6 of 8 wr's be total busts you can deduce that it is not good

while perry may not be equal to simon you can flip that and say a bust like freddie mitchell cancels out two or three dominic furios

Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: phattymatty on April 10, 2006, 12:59:10 PM
I didn't realize that na brown was during the andy reid era.  that wr list is ridonkulous.  what a bunch of losers.
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: MDS on April 10, 2006, 01:01:57 PM
He hit the jackpot on centers
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: PoopyfaceMcGee on April 10, 2006, 01:30:01 PM
Well, I'm going to do you one better, even if you can't appreciate the genius of it.

Here's my analysis...
Notes:
1.  Players taken earlier in the draft are weighted more heavily.
(ie:  Donovan McNabb was taken at #2 overall and is weighted by a factor of 2^-0.25, whereas A.J. Feeley was taken 155th overall and is weighted at 155^-0.25)
2.  Also, players taken in more recent drafts are weighted ever so slightly more heavily.  This accounts slightly for Eagles learning from mistakes or getting rid of guys they didn't like in the personnel department.  So, the 2005 draft is weighted at a full 1, but 1999 is only 0.8232, approximately.  This weighting is at a negative power factor of 0.1

So, if a player was taken 1st overall in 2005, that would be a 1, the top relevance factor.  If a player was taken 251st in 1999 (Pernell Davis), their total relevance factor is 251^-0.25*7^-0.1 = 0.2068 (approx.)

So, factoring in both the overall position in the draft in which the player was drafted and slightly how long ago he was drafted, here is the more relevant weighting of positions the Eagles have drafted:

QB - 6.9%
RB - 10.7%
WR - 14.0%
TE - 4.6%
OL - 21.2%
DE - 10.3%
DT - 8.3%
LB - 8.7%
CB - 7.3%
S - 8.0%

If you don't get it, try harder.
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: MadMarchHare on April 10, 2006, 01:41:34 PM
Dude, you got way too much time on your hands.
Nerd.
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: Drunkmasterflex on April 10, 2006, 01:46:49 PM
That list of LB's is absolutely disgraceful, the WR's aren't much better but at least they have made some contribution.
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: mussa on April 10, 2006, 01:52:17 PM
maybe since reid has been here he hasn't had the chance to utilize drafting guys upfront. it all depends on the draft class and our position int he draft right?

andrews and welbourn are prob most productive OL out of them all. simon being the only defensive lineman, with patterson, cole w/ possibilities.  mcdougle is pretty much a lost cause, he can't even get on the practice field.  thats 3 out of many up front.

for a team that needs to utilize the draft more than ever this year, i want to see some quality moves. if we can trade up for a guy who's going to make an instant impact, then do it.  i don't want to see potential players, i want impact players.  i think they will make some sort of move, but im not sure where or who, I'll leave that to you guys.  the anxiety is starting to build for this coming draft.  i think its more important this year than it has been in the past 4-5 years. 
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: ice grillin you on April 10, 2006, 02:02:17 PM
WR - McMullen,  Milons, Mitchell, Pinkston, Gari Scott, Na Brown, Troy Smith, R. Brown - D

DE - McDougle, Green, Raheem Brock, Burgess, John Frank, Cole - C-

RB - Tapeh, Bruce Perry, Westy, CBUCK, Thomas Hamner, Moats - B

G - Shawn Andrews, Trey Darilek, Adrien Clarke, Jeremy Bridges, Doug Brzezinski, Welbourn, S Young - B-

S - JR Reed, Norman Lejeune, Michael Lewis, Damon Moore, Considine - C

LB - Tyreo Harrion, Quinton Caver, Barry Gardner, McCoy, Bergeron - F-

CB - Dexter Wynn, Lito, Sheldon, Matt Ware - B+

OT -  Bobbie Williams, Herremans, Armstrong -  C

DT-  Corey Simon, Pernell Davis, Patterson, Marshall -C+

QB-  McNabb, Feeley, Hall - A+

C -   Dominic Furio, Scott Peters, John Romero - F

TE-   LJ Smith, Tony Stewart, Jed Weaver - B

FB-   Cecil Martin - D+


FINAL GRADE C-
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: PoopyfaceMcGee on April 10, 2006, 02:28:01 PM
Quote from: FFatPatt on April 10, 2006, 01:30:01 PM
QB - 6.9%
RB - 10.7%
WR - 14.0%
TE - 4.6%
OL - 21.2%
DE - 10.3%
DT - 8.3%
LB - 8.7%
CB - 7.3%
S - 8.0%

If you weight when the player is taken even more heavily (by a power factor of -0.35), which I am inclined to do, here are the numbers:

QB - 8.4%
RB - 10.0%
WR - 14.0%
TE - 4.3%
OL - 20.4%
DE - 10.2%
DT - 9.0%
LB - 8.6%
CB - 7.4%
S - 7.7%

By a power factor of -0.5:


QB - 11.7%
RB - 8.8%
WR - 13.8%
TE - 3.9%
OL - 19.0%
DE - 10.0%
DT - 10.3%
LB - 8.2%
CB - 7.3%
S - 6.9%
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: MURP on April 10, 2006, 02:39:26 PM
QuoteI find it interesting that a coach who talks about how the guys upfront are the most important parts on the team has spent 24% of his draft picks on offensive skill positions in WR's and RB's.



Quote from: FFatPatt on April 10, 2006, 02:28:01 PM

If you weight when the player is taken even more heavily (by a power factor of -0.35), which I am inclined to do, here are the numbers:


RB - 10.0%
WR - 14.0%


hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: PoopyfaceMcGee on April 10, 2006, 02:45:22 PM
It is interesting that your initial ill-founded conclusion actually matches up somewhat close to reality, yes.  Very.
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: Wingspan on April 10, 2006, 03:08:23 PM
Quote from: MURP on April 10, 2006, 12:36:02 PM
I find it interesting that a coach who talks about how the guys upfront are the most important parts on the team has spent 24% of his draft picks on offensive skill positions in WR's and RB's. 

2/5 of the line was set with runyon and thomas, and 3/5 if you count mayberry.

you're looking at filling only half the line...2 or 3 players, as opposed to 6 other spots (5 not counting mcnabb)
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: PoopyfaceMcGee on April 10, 2006, 03:11:14 PM
Quote from: Wingspan on April 10, 2006, 03:08:23 PM
you're looking at filling only half the line...2 or 3 players, as opposed to 6 other spots (5 not counting mcnabb)

4.  3 WR's and 1 RB or 2 WR's and 2 RB's.  MURP wasn't including TE's.

No doubt the Eagles have "over-picked" those positions (WR/RB), because so many of the guys they've drafted there have been complete losers... partially because some were picked quite late in the draft, and partially just because.
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: Don Ho on April 10, 2006, 03:47:39 PM
Quote from: ice grillin you on April 10, 2006, 02:02:17 PM
S - JR Reed, Norman Lejeune, Michael Lewis, Damon Moore, Considine - C

i might give the Safety grade a B+ as we all know JR Reed was/is going to be a player and Damon Moore I felt was a very good safety who never recovered from blowing his knee out against the Rams in NFCG.
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: ice grillin you on April 10, 2006, 03:53:31 PM
i might give the Safety grade a B+ as we all know JR Reed was/is going to be a player and Damon Moore I felt was a very good safety who never recovered from blowing his knee out against the Rams in NFCG.

moore sucked and there was zero indication that reed would have ever been anything but a great KR

i can live with a B there if one chose...b+ no way
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: MadMarchHare on April 10, 2006, 04:01:49 PM
By that same notion, one could argue they drafted Reed to specifically be a KR, and lumping him in with the safeties is inaccurate.
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: ice grillin you on April 10, 2006, 04:06:38 PM
yes and if true that would raise the overall draft grade
Title: Re: Breakdown of Reids drafts
Post by: DutchBird on April 11, 2006, 02:04:24 AM

When looking at these, I try and disregard injuries. I do not know what the previous injury history is. And injuries can happen to anyone.

WR - McMullen,  Milons, Mitchell, Pinkston, Gari Scott, Na Brown, Troy Smith, R. Brown - D-

The only thing IMHO keeping this from a big F was 4 and 26 and the once in a while catches from Pinkston. And the possible future of R. Brown (and that outweighs Pinky and Mitchell).

DE - McDougle, Green, Raheem Brock, Burgess, John Frank, Cole - C+

This one, IMHO is actually hard to grade. Injuries are hard to control (especially people being shot), in McDougle amd Green. Brock was a good pick up however lost in numbers (and did some nice things in Indy), Burgess was alright (and superb this year), Cole showed flashes. The only 100% failure I see so far is John Frank.

RB - Tapeh, Bruce Perry, Westy, CBUCK, Thomas Hamner, Moats - B

Westbrook was a steal, the problem with CBuck are his injuries, Tapeh, Perry and Moats seem to be very nice. The one glaring problem with these seems to be a big back (only CBuck slightly fits that mold, but he has his injuries). So as far as players picked I feel I have to give a B. As far as type of RB's picked it is IMHO a D+ (but that is not being judged here).

G - Shawn Andrews, Trey Darilek, Adrien Clarke, Jeremy Bridges, Doug Brzezinski, Welbourn, S Young - B-

This list includes 4 decent starters. Not bad, IMHO.

S - JR Reed, Norman Lejeune, Michael Lewis, Damon Moore, Considine - B+

Lewis and Moore were superb picks. Reed seemed at least decent. However, both Moore and probably Reed have succumbed to injuries. Considine seemed to have been buried on the depth chart.

LB - Tyreo Harrion, Quinton Caver, Barry Gardner, McCoy, Bergeron - F-

This list largely leaves me with the feeling of "Who are these guys?" That should indeed warrant no more then an F- (more correctly would have been a Z).

CB - Dexter Wynn, Lito, Sheldon, Matt Ware - A+

Okay... Pro Bowl CB, should be Pro Bowl CB, at least serviceable nickel CB, decent dime CB and buried on the depth chart behind arguably the best 3 CB set in the league (Sheppard, Brown and Hood) and a decent nickel CB. Seriously, IMHO, you could hardly wish for more... My guess is that most if not all franchises in the league would break the bank for this group (and Hood as rooky UFA).

OT -  Bobbie Williams, Herremans, Armstrong -  C

DT-  Corey Simon, Pernell Davis, Patterson, Marshall -C-

Simon got worse, Patterson has looked good so far, Pernell Who? and Marshall might eventually pan out.

QB-  McNabb, Feeley, Hall - A

McNabb, IMHO one of the best QB's in the league. Feeley above all what the were able to ship him for to Miami.

C -   Dominic Furio, Scott Peters, John Romero - F

Thank God for the waiver wire and rookie FA's.

TE-   LJ Smith, Tony Stewart, Jed Weaver - B-

FB-   Cecil Martin - C

Cecil was no superstar, but still very decent as a FB.


FINAL GRADE C-

The C- is above all the result of the utter failure in drafting LB's, and the severe problem in drafting WR's. The failure in LB's has been hidden by the superb backfield we have. The lack of support on offense however has cost us dearly time and again. The only one that IMHO deserve a (marginal) passing grade for that group are Pinkston and Brown. And the only one IMHO who could still improve is Brown.