The Weather Thread

[QB Eagles]

Hitting Haiti 8am tomorrow. A lot of people are going to die. It's probably already begun to kill given the amount of rain on the east side of this storm.

As for the US, a landing anywhere on the coast or nowhere is still in play. Definitely farging up igy's vacation no matter where it goes though.

The 12Z and 18Z GFS brought Matthew considerably closer to the Florida coast than earlier runs, with a projected landfall in northern South Carolina this weekend (see Figure 4 below) and a second landfall on Cape Cod less than 36 hours later. The 18Z GFS nudged Matthew's track so that it arrives very near the central Florida coast on Thursday night, then hugs the coast all the way to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on Sunday morning. The 12Z and 18Z Monday GFS ensembles (GEFS) featured a majority of runs making landfall somewhere between Florida and North Carolina, a major shift west from previous GFS ensembles. The 12Z Monday run of the HWRF model tracked about 1 degree (roughly 60 miles) west of its previous two runs, now showing a potential landfall in eastern North Carolina by late Friday.

[PhillyPhreak54]

This one is setting up to be really ugly.  We're on standby at the office but we may have to evacuate mandatorily.  Ugh...  this is the nightmare scenario they've been fearing for years here.  I've seen the forecasted storm surges for a cat 4 and we'd lose everything if this goes wrong.

Good luck bro

Board up and gtfo

Head up to PA and get away from that mess

[QB Eagles]

Florida might be more away from that mess than Philly. Give it a few days and let's see what happens when it's back over open water. Outer Banks are farged even if it's just a storm surge, one breach anywhere closes NC-12.

[MDS]

rome you can crash with me

theres numerous hipster bars within walking distance of my crib just for you

[Geowhizzer]

Take care, Rome.  We're probably OK on the west coast, but we've been getting a lot of rain today and probably will again tomorrow.  With all the standing water, the damned Zika virus is probably coming to get us!

[PhillyPhreak54]

I wonder why it took a direct turn north

Seemed like it should've continued into the gulf and head this way

[PhillyPhreak54]

rome you can crash with me

theres numerous hipster bars within walking distance of my crib just for you

Guinness and fútbol with lil guy

[QB Eagles]

There was a single run of a model yesterday that showed it going into the Gulf and scoring a direct hit on New Orleans. The other 100 runs all had it in the Atlantic. I lol'ed.

[Geowhizzer]

I wonder why it took a direct turn north

Seemed like it should've continued into the gulf and head this way

Usually when a storm turns north it's because of a frontal boundary that is interacting with it - that's why all storms eventually turn northeast.  It was hoped that the turn would be faster and earlier that it has turned out to be, and that's why the cone is getting closer to the U.S. coast.

[PhillyPhreak54]

I wonder why it took a direct turn north

Seemed like it should've continued into the gulf and head this way

Usually when a storm turns north it's because of a frontal boundary that is interacting with it - that's why all storms eventually turn northeast.  It was hoped that the turn would be faster and earlier that it has turned out to be, and that's why the cone is getting closer to the U.S. coast.

I guess it was the "cold" front that passed through here several days ago that hit it

[QB Eagles]

Here's a precedent that should be somewhat alarming:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel

[PhillyPhreak54]

Interesting story on Hazel

Put the Zamboni away, eh. A hurricane is coming.

[Rome]

The sort of storm they're freaking out about isn't a direct east to west track.  It's a southeast to northwest bomb that pushes the surges into the insets and bays here and devastates everything ten miles inland.   The EOC is on alert right now and they're concerned.  That's what I'm hearing.  If it turns just a few degrees west,  we're getting smoked.   

My house is 200 yards from the beach but I don't require flood insurance here because I'm in a 500 yr FEMA zone (our elevation is very high on the island) so flooding won't be an issue.  The wind field for a cat 3 would tear this house to pieces, though. 

Either way, we're outta here come Thursday.  I have to be back within 24 hours but as long as my family is safe, that's fine.

[PhillyPhreak54]

Damn that sounds bad. Good luck bud

Why would you have to be back within 24hrs?

[General_Failure]

To prevent me from looting it.