Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagle

[General_Failure]

By himself? Daaaaaaamn.

[ice grillin you]

NEXT-GEN STATS: Is Carson Wentz the real deal or a one-game wonder?

That's the question every general manager and scout must consider after watching the second overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft light it up in his debut performance despite missing most of the preseason with a rib injury. Wentz completed 22 of 37 passes for 278 yards and a pair of scores for the Eagles in their Week 1 win over the Browns. He finished the night with a 101.0 passer rating and looked like a potential star at the position.

Now, I know it's only one game, and we shouldn't give the rookie a gold jacket based on his spectacular play against a weak Browns defense, but Wentz's numbers stand up well against the debuts of other top picks in recent history. Take a look at how some recent top-five quarterbacks performed in their first career starts:

Carson Wentz (2016): won game; completed 22 of 37 passes for 278 passing yards with a 2:0 TD-to-INT ratio and a 101.0 passer rating.

Jameis Winston (2015): lost game; completed 16 of 33 passes for 210 yards with a 2:2 TD-to-INT ratio and a 64.0 passer rating.

Marcus Mariota (2015): won game; completed 13 of 15 passes for 209 yards with a 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio and a 158.3 passer rating.

Andrew Luck (2012): lost game; completed 23 of 45 passes for 309 yards with a 1:3 TD-to-INT ratio and a 52.9 passer rating.

Robert Griffin III (2012): won game; completed 19 of 26 passes for 320 yards with a 2:0 TD-to-INT ratio and a 139.9 passer rating.

Cam Newton (2011): lost game; completed 24 of 37 passes for 422 yards with a 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio and a 110.4 passer rating.

Based on the numbers, it nearly impossible to determine whether Wentz will go on to become an elite quarterback after one game, but I found it interesting that his stats were nearly identical to Cam Newton's production in his 2011 debut against the Arizona Cardinals. I've always believed Wentz's game mirrored the reigning MVP's playing style, and he could make a similar impact on the league as a big-bodied, dual-threat playmaker.


Looking back at my scouting report on Wentz prior to the draft, I viewed the 6-foot-5, 237-pounder as a big, strong-armed passer with exceptional arm talent. I thought he was not only capable of making every throw in the book with zip, velocity and precision, but he also flashed a feathery touch on deep balls along the boundary. Regarding his running ability, I loved Wentz's combination of size and speed on the perimeter. He excelled executing zone reads and designed quarterback runs, particularly down in the red zone, where "plus-1" concepts -- quarterback runs to negate the defense's numerical advantage at the point of attack -- give the offense an added dimension.

Considering Wentz's high football IQ and his mastery of complex passing concepts due to his experience directing a pro-style offense at North Dakota State, I thought he would have a solid track to success despite playing against a lower level of competition as a collegian. Now, I'll be the first to admit that I thought it would take him some time to figure it all out (the Eagles planned to give Wentz a redshirt year as a rookie while he sat behind a couple of veterans), but the rookie was thrust into the starting lineup when the team traded Sam Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings for a couple of top picks.

I've been around the NFL long enough to know that plans quickly change, and most top-five draft picks, particularly quarterbacks, crack the starting lineup at some point during their rookie seasons. But I didn't expect to see Wentz stepping onto the field with the "ones" in Week 1 after sitting out the majority of the preseason with an injury. Despite showing impressive flashes in limited action, Wentz hadn't played enough preseason snaps to get a full grasp of his readiness, and I wondered how Eagles coach Doug Pederson would craft a game plan around the rookie to help him succeed in the season opener. In my experience, most coaches opt for a conservative approach when breaking in a rookie starter. Teams will feature quick throws and simple isolation or combination patterns to make it easy for the quarterback to find an open receiver against any coverage. Coaches will also script a series of plays around the strengths of their young passer to make sure that he quickly finds his comfort zone on the field.


Against the Browns, the Eagles crafted a beautiful game plan that highlighted Wentz's strengths as a downfield passer. From seams and go-routes along the hashes or sidelines to sail routes (deep speed outs) and deep overs (deep crossing routes), the Eagles featured a number of vertical routes that allowed the rookie to push the ball down the field off play-action or on the move. To my surprise, the high-risk, high-reward approach better suited the rookie's talents. According to Next Gen stats, Wentz completed 9 of 11 passes (81.8 percent) that traveled 10 or more yards in the air, with 15.6 yards per attempt and a perfect 158.3 passer rating on those passes. (He connected on 13 of 26 passes that traveled 10 yards in the air or less, with 3.8 yards per attempt and a 60.7 passer rating on those throws.)

That's ridiculous production from any quarterback, particularly a rookie making his first start after limited preseason work. As I studied the All-22 Coaches Film, I was blown away by Wentz's touch, timing and accuracy on his deep throws. He dropped the ball over the receiver's outside shoulder on most throws, which allowed them to keep the defender on their hip while securing the catch.

Let's take a closer look at video of Wentz's first touchdown pass on Sunday. The Eagles are aligned in an empty formation, with Jordan Matthews in the slot. The team is running a smash-seams concept, with the outside guys instructed to run hitches and the slot receivers running fade routes from their inside position. Against man coverage, the inside fade gives the quarterback a bigger box to target in the front corner of the end zone. This definitely makes the throw easier, but Wentz's superb ball placement made it nearly impossible for the Browns to defend the play:


Later in the game, the Eagles dialed it up on a fade route to Nelson Agholor down the boundary, as you can see in the video below. The second-year pro must escape press coverage at the line, but he can't get pushed too far to the sideline, because it shrinks the target area for the quarterback. Agholor quickly whips Pro Bowler Joe Haden at the line and fights to "stack" (receiver works to get directly in front of the defensive back while running down the field) the veteran corner as he heads down the field. Wentz throws a teardrop over the young pass catcher's outside shoulder for a score:


Wentz's debut performance has created a buzz in the scouting community. Evaluators wonder if the young passer can build upon his strong performance to energize an Eagles offense that is more systematic than star-driven. After looking at the numbers and the All-22 Coaches Film, I not only believe he will continue to shine as a deep ball passer, but his accuracy and efficiency will improve on the quick-rhythm throws that are the foundation of the Eagles' passing game. If he quickly masters the "catch-and-fire" throws in the game plan, the Eagles might've landed a budding superstar at the top of the draft.

[Sgt PSN]

Guess playing on the road in prime time doesn't really faze him either. Impressive again.

[Susquehanna Birder]

Word has come down from the league that Wentz is the first rookie since the 1970 merger to win his first two games without throwing a pick.

I saw a FB post somewhere that he is the only NFL QB ever to start his first two games with a win, at least one TD pass in each game, and no interceptions. Not completely sure about this stat...but it sounds nice anyway.

[QB Eagles]

Word has come down from the league that Wentz is the first rookie since the 1970 merger to win his first two games without throwing a pick.

Stat only holds if it's the first two games of a season.

[ice grillin you]

if you include enough variables in a stat you can make anything come true

it's a meaningless stat cause rookies didn't start back in the day very often....it would carry weight if 20 years from now he was still the only one to do it

[General_Failure]

20 years from now the rules will have continued to be altered to favor the offense so much that any interception will be considered a miracle performed by the defensive player.

[Rome]

Wentz has played decently.  He hasn't played like farging Joe Montana in his prime.  I'm all in with the guy but the hype has just been stupid.  It's a good story, though, and the NFL could use them these days what with the protests and brain damages, rapes, domestic violence and drug suspensions dominating the media's attention. 

[smeags]

to me this is still a 6-10 team. yeah it's nice to see this kid play at the level he is right now, but it's two games against crap teams.

[Rome]

I still think 8-8 is reasonable.  The defense has played better than I thought.  Wentz is going to get pummeled at some point soon, though. 

[smeags]

it certainly is reasonable because this division is still up for grabs. I could see the eagles going 4-2 in the division which would make total 8 wins within reason.

wentz needs to practice diving/sliding all damn week.

[ice grillin you]

Wentz has played decently. 

id argue hes played much better than decently...forget any other drops just give him the matthews touchdown last night and his numbers become stellar....hes scored on almost half his drives granted helped by amazing field position thus far but i dont know what else he could  have done thus far

except for one thing and thats 3rd down efficiency....i dont know the exact numbers from last night but they were awful...hasnt hurt them yet because of the opponents but that has to get better

[ice grillin you]

Wentz is going to get pummeled at some point soon, though.

i agree.....not that lane johnson is some all pro but they might be in some trouble when hes gone

four of the next six on the road and the two home games are steelers and vikes....going to find out a lot after that stretch

[QB Eagles]

He's basically never thrown an ugly pass or something that looked like a bad decision. Sometimes I wish there was a little more zip on the ball, but the WRs are having a tough time holding on to the floaters dropped right in their bread baskets, so maybe more zip would be a bad idea. I anticipate that he will learn how to avoid some of those hits, hopefully before he gets injured. Of course I want to see how he does against better opponents and whether he can keep the momentum going once teams start seeing more of him on film, but what we've seen until now is as consistently solid as any other QB in the NFL.

So I think the hype is justified based on what we've seen so far. I won't say the same about Pederson, because 1) without Wentz it's very possible that this team would have looked like a sack of shtein in these games -- a lot of the team still does look kinda zesty to me, to be honest and 2) my opinion is that unless he proves to be completely incompetent, it takes multiple years to even begin to judge a HC. There's too many different things to judge him on to declare anything after two games against dumpster fire teams.

[smeags]

the real test is this sunday, we all knew that when the team announced he was starting from day 1.