Phillies

[MDS]

pretty sure you have no idea what $25 million is

[Rome]

The amount required for a woman to sleep with you?

[Don Ho]

Romey, leave my ex-wife out of this!

[Don Ho]

Honestly, no real emotion here.  OK great I kind of like it when players finish their crew are on the team they came up with through the farm system, but damn lots of money. I don't think they were really in the sunny gray sweepstakes.

[PhillyPhreak54]

Same. They had to keep him really bc if he goes that rotation gets worse.

Maybe they'll still go after Yammamoto

[MDS]

maybe they wont

[Geowhizzer]

I would doubt it, but...

https://twitter.com/byalexcoffey/status/1726320217138319845

[Rome]

ESPN had a Trout to the Phillies story behind its paywall.  It would be super if someone could post that here.

[Geowhizzer]

ESPN had a Trout to the Phillies story behind its paywall.  It would be super if someone could post that here.

Straight C&P:

Why the Phillies should trade for Mike Trout

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
Nov 17, 2023, 07:00 AM ET
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Long before the start of the first game of the National League Championship Series, Philadelphia Phillies managing partner John Middleton could be found wandering the media dining room at Citizens Bank Park. When asked what an owner does four hours before a playoff game, he said: "Pace."

And after his team won the first two games only to shockingly blow the series lead and lose in seven games to the Arizona Diamondbacks, you have to imagine there has been a lot of pacing in the Phillies' front office since then.

An offense that had dominated the beginning of the postseason with seven wins in eight games suddenly went cold, hitting .197 over the final five games and scoring just three runs in the final two defeats at home.

It was a disappointing ending to a successful season. After all, the club has now reached the World Series and the NLCS in back-to-back seasons, falling short of a championship both times. Getting that close only increases the desire to win it all -- especially for an owner like Middleton, who has shown the willingness to spend money, and an executive like Dave Dombrowski, who is always in win-now mode.

The Phillies just haven't been quite good enough. Even though they defeated the Atlanta Braves in each of the past two playoffs, they also finished 14 games behind their division rivals both seasons. They need to get better in the regular season and a little better in the postseason.

And here's a wild idea on how to do that: Trade for Mike Trout. Bring him home.


Would the Angels even trade Trout? Would the Phillies trade for him?
It's admittedly a far-fetched idea. For starters, during last week's general managers meetings, all indications from Los Angeles Angels GM Perry Minasian were that Trout won't be traded.

"Mike Trout's an Angel," Minasian told MLB Network. "We're excited to have Mike Trout. He's, if not the best, one of the best hitters to ever play the game and he's somebody that we love to be associated with. I go back to it again: Somebody who is going to help us win a lot of games."

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Of course, there were reports late in the season that the Angels would be open to trading Trout if he asked out of L.A., which led him to say: "These conversations happen every year, not just this year. ... The plan, as it always is, is to take a couple weeks off in the offseason, clear my mind, get in shape, get ready to play and go from there."

Neither of those statements are exactly 100% firm denials, though. And if Shohei Ohtani signs with a new team in free agency in the coming months -- the likely scenario -- the whole landscape changes for the Angels.

On the Phillies' side of things, all indications point to a focus on pitching in the offseason. At his end-of-season news conference, Dombrowski said the team's top priority was to re-sign free agent pitcher Aaron Nola -- or acquire a comparable pitcher. "We love him," Dombrowski said. "He's been tremendous for the franchise. He's pitched very well for a number of years. He's a Phillie. We hope to retain him, but if we don't, to me that would be our No. 1 area. We'd need then to replace him."

There has also been speculation, however, that the Phillies would be open to trading right fielder Nick Castellanos, who has three years and $60 million left on his contract. Dombrowski has also said that Johan Rojas, the team's center fielder throughout the playoffs, hasn't necessarily earned that spot for 2024 after hitting .093 in October. While he hit .302 in 149 at-bats in the regular season and his defense was spectacular, Rojas also had a poor 42-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

"I'm not going to anoint him a position with our big league club next year," Dombrowski said. "He has to be able to contribute some offense or he has to go down and continue to develop."

And there's the opening we need to speculate about a Trout trade.

Brandon Marsh could slide back to center field, opening left field for Trout, who probably should move there at this point in his career anyway. Or the Phillies could trade Castellanos, move Marsh to right and live with Rojas and Cristian Pache in center. Either way, the outfield isn't exactly locked down.

Why Trout makes so much sense for the Phillies
The Phillies' offense is, dare we say, a little overrated. I mean, did you watch the final two games of the NLCS? Or the final three games of the World Series in 2022, when Philly scored just three runs and got no-hit by the Houston Astros in Game 4? While the Phillies were fourth in the NL and eighth in the majors in runs scored in 2023, remember that they play in a hitter-friendly park. They were just 14th in the majors in runs scored on the road.

It's a good offense, but it hasn't been a great offense -- at least, not consistently. There's no denying the Phillies can get hot. For the first two-and-a-half rounds of the playoffs -- before everything went downhill in Phoenix -- they were unstoppable, scoring 46 runs and hitting 19 home runs in their first eight playoff games. In fact, the long ball was what propelled the Phillies, as they hit 11 against the Braves in the NLDS and six in the first two games against the D-backs.

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They perhaps became too homer-centric -- despite Dombrowski's emphasis that their philosophy is not to "just hit the ball out of the park" -- as a decline in home runs coincided with an inability to get on base, resulting in their ultimate demise.

"We got into a home-run-hitting frenzy," Dombrowski said. "We were popping the ball out of the park all the time. Normally, if you're just trying to hit the ball out of the ballpark, you're going to struggle at times, so we don't preach that, but at the end of the season, that's where we were living and dying. ... We just didn't get guys on base in the majority of those five games."

Get guys on base.

That leads us back to Trout again, because what does he do best? Get on base. Even last year, when he had his worst season, his .367 on-base percentage would have ranked third on the Phillies behind Bryce Harper and Marsh. The only other regular above .330 was Kyle Schwarber. Among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances over the past three seasons, Trout ranks eighth in OBP (and third in OPS, behind only Aaron Judge and Ohtani).

"We swung at way too many pitches out of the strike zone this year," Dombrowski said. "Way too many. And I know we have guys that chase, but for whatever reason they chased even more this year, and that's something I think we need to address. I know we'll address because we've already had meetings in that regard."

Indeed, the Phillies had a 30.9% chase rate -- 26th out of 30 teams. (The World Series champion Texas Rangers had the second-lowest chase rate in the majors.) The Phillies actually weren't much better in this area in 2022, ranking 26th at 30.7%. Over the two seasons, they are ninth overall in OBP but just 18th in walk rate and 18th in strikeout rate.

Castellanos is the ringleader in this department, as he had a chase rate of 40.9%, among the worst in the majors. He finished with 185 strikeouts and just 36 walks, so while he ended up with nice counting totals of 29 home runs and 106 RBIs, throw in his subpar defense and he was worth just 1.5 WAR. That, paired with his streaky tendencies in the past two postseasons, play into the speculation that the Phillies could trade him, opening up an avenue to acquire Trout.

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Of course, the big question here is: What kind of player is Trout right now, entering his age-32 season? Would any team really risk taking on his contract given that he has averaged just 79 games played the past three seasons?

Let's lay out the basics:

He's owed about $248 million for seven more seasons ($35.45 million per year), so the contract covers his age 32-38 seasons.

He is coming off his worst season: .858 OPS, 131 OPS+, career-high 28.7% strikeout rate in 82 games played, including just one after July 3 because of a fractured hamate bone and lingering pain.

The strikeout rate is the concerning issue. From 2016 to 2019, he never struck out more than 20.4% of the time. It has now hovered around 28% three seasons in a row, so this is who he is -- a hitter who strikes out about 6% more often than the average hitter.

He still draws walks and hits for power. He's just one season removed from mashing 40 home runs in 119 games and finishing eighth in the MVP voting.

His defensive metrics have been average to above average in center field. He's not Rojas or Marsh but would likely rank as a big plus in left field. While the Phillies would like to keep Schwarber in the DH role as much as possible, they could certainly move him to left on occasion to give Trout's legs a day off.

The Phillies' payroll is at an estimated $210 million to $215 million (about $230 million for tax purposes), and that's without re-signing or replacing Nola. In 2023, it ended up around an estimated $246 million (pre-tax).

My take: Trout is still one of the best hitters in the game. Even with his subpar (for him) numbers from 2023, his 134 wRC+ (weighted runs created) would make him one of the 15 to 20 best hitters in the game. It's also hard not to believe that a trade would reenergize Trout a little bit. Playing for a World Series contender rather than an also-ran should get the blood flowing a little more for a veteran player who has made the playoffs just once in his 13-year career. At 32, maybe his best days are behind him, but there are still plenty of good seasons left in his bat -- including maybe a couple more in which he's still one of best three or four hitters in the sport.

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There's also the fact that some of his injuries have been unique injuries -- or at least they've been to different parts of his body: a torn calf muscle in 2021, a month missed in 2022 because of a troublesome back issue (from which he returned and hit .321 with 12 home runs in September) and then the broken hand in 2023.

Just imagine Trout in the cozy confines of Citizens Bank Park. Dombrowski has gone after star players in the past -- and it's hard to get a bigger one than Mike Trout.

What trade(s) would work for both sides?
So, what might a potential deal look like? The Phillies won't want to take on all of Trout's salary and give something back of value, so let's find a middle ground: Castellanos, outfield prospect Justin Crawford, pitching prospect Griff McGarry and $5 million in cash each year from 2024 to 2026 (basically turning Castellanos' salary into $15 million per season).

The key for the Phillies is that "win now" proposition. They need to do whatever they can to win in the next couple of years. Sure, Trout comes with injury risk -- but also enormous upside. He was worth 6.3 WAR in 2022. They could bat him in front of Harper or behind Harper. Think of the state of their roster: Zack Wheeler is a free agent after 2024 and J.T. Realmuto and Schwarber after 2025, not to mention that Harper and Trea Turner will be 31 next year. The Phillies have to put all their chips on the table right now -- and Dombrowski certainly knows how to do that.

For 2024 through 2026, we've added $35 million in salary for Trout while subtracting $15 million, a net gain of $20 million. That still leaves room to sign a starting pitcher -- maybe not Nola, but the reality of that situation is that once a player reaches free agency he rarely goes back to the same team. The Phillies could look to make a trade for somebody on a one-year deal like Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes or Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow, or sign a free agent starter like Sonny Gray or Marcus Stroman who would fit Dombrowski's desire for quality while also costing less than Nola (and perhaps providing just as much value given Nola's 4.46 ERA in 2023).

As for the Angels, maybe that return feels light for one of the greatest players of all time. The simple truth is that Trout's contract, age and injury history will limit the return. But they do get some value. Castellanos gives them a DH or right fielder to replace Ohtani or Hunter Renfroe. The speedy Crawford hit .332 with 47 stolen bases between Single-A and High-A this season. McGarry is a tough-to-hit starter with control problems (and could end up a reliever as a result). Maybe the Angels would prefer Rojas to Crawford, but Crawford has more upside.

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Most importantly, the Angels clear Trout's salary for the long term -- and admit that a rebuild is really their only path to future success.

They haven't won with Trout and Ohtani, so it seems unlikely they're going to win without Ohtani, not in a division with the Rangers, Astros and Seattle Mariners. They could look at shortstop Zach Neto, catcher Logan O'Hoppe and first baseman Nolan Schanuel and see the hopes for a foundation for the future. Without Ohtani and Trout, they've cleared $67 million off the 2023 payroll (they're stuck with Anthony Rendon at $38.5 million for four more years). They could spend those savings in the 2024-25 offseason, which will see a much better free agent class (Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Wheeler, Burnes, Glasnow, Max Fried, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Walker Buehler).

Again ... all of this is unlikely. Arte Moreno probably doesn't want to go down as the owner who lost both Ohtani and Trout, but the Angels also haven't finished with a winning record since 2015. And Middleton doesn't want to see his Phillies break down in late October for a third straight season.

It's time to make some changes -- for both teams.

[ice grillin you]

why would anyone want mike trout...one of the biggest losers ever and makes maga harper look clutch

[MDS]

they arent trading for mike trout...its a made up twitter rumor to get cheap clicks and suck in the pleebs

i was at the bank tonight for a bit, saw our friend john middleton. they are def kicking the tires on yammamoto, but i wouldnt expect it. but they are IN. i was trying to pry for more info but john was like "my wife has a cancer" like a farging Asperger's patient. that nixed my shot to get anything else (i think shes gonna be ok).

[PhillyPhreak54]

What was going on down at the stadium?

[Rome]

Kimbrel is gone to DIOcountry for $13M!

Wtf. 

[PhillyPhreak54]

Wow. Not only did he get another job but someone is willingly paying him $13m for the agony of watching him.

[Don Ho]

Maybe they hope the June - September man bun still has air in the tires.  October bible thumper was not pretty.  I don't get to lots of Phils games in person but this prick ruined a great day for me and my son at Dodger Stadium in early May.  Bye bye you washed up bum.