The coming financial crisis

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

Hahaha - I just checked back to see how this thread started.  Butchers Bill essentially predicted the future perfectly in August 2007:

This is not looking good folks.  As a investor and analyst of some of this stuff, I think we are in for a world of hurt for the next 18-24 months.

Mortgages being foreclosed on at an unprecedented rate.

New mortgages becoming increasingly difficult to get funded.

Credit lines vanishing.

The dollar losing value daily.

China threatening to worsen the dollar collapse by sellings its reserves.

The US Fed asleep at the wheel.

MAJOR financial institutions (Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch) all in danger because of bad mortgages.



We could be seeing the start of the next great depression IMO.  If the US economy goes in the tank, the rest of the world may not be far behind.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eaMj1DPI6U&mode=related&search=

Sadly he's right.  I work in the bond market and "Armageddon" is not an exaggeration.

So what's the inside scoop, Bill? What is everyone, in particular, truly worried about?

Some big players (I mentioned a few above) may actually become insolvent, some hedge funds who invest heavily in those companies will have nothing to back their derivative trades with, which would unravel billions possibly trillions of dollars in hedged trades.

In laymans terms, hundreds of billions of dollars (possibly trillions) would simply vanish from investors and these huge financials.  If that happens, no one is safe...the stalwarts of the American economy would have proven vulnerable, and if they are, is the US gov't just as vulnerable?  What if China stopped buying treasuries because of a perceived weakness in the Us's ability to pay its debt?  I can tell you our government would have to shut down...80% of the bond trades I place are with the Chinese.

The scary part is the hedge fund industry in completely unregulated and there are trillions of "paper assets" that are at stake here.  What happens if the US wakes up one morning to see trillions gone?  I don't even want to think about it.   

And here is the voice of "reason":

with all due respect this sounds like some y2k ish to me

Hey, IGY was wrong for a change!

[Father Demon]

Props to Butcher...  although I wish to hell he was wrong.

[phattymatty]

wow, one person on here actually knows what they're talking about.

[Father Demon]

I think each of us on here knows what we're talking about to at least one particular item.  The problem is, for most of us it's alcohol, bacon, and boobs and porn. 

[SunMo]

reese?

munson?

cole?

[Wingspan]

I have an ungodly wealth of knowledge about groundhogs, and nose hairs.

[reese125]

reese?

munson?

cole?

missed me huh Mo...thats cute.

shtein...I could only imagine if you escaped the hockey and video game thread what you could potentially contribute to the rest of us...probably nothing....so nevermind

[Seabiscuit36]

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4531397n

Ken Lewis on 60 Minutes last night.  Very good piece on BOA, and about the current Crisis.  He was asked flat out if the 125billion the major banks just got makes America a socialistic state. 

[shorebird]

Props to Butcher...  although I wish to hell he was wrong.

Yeah, the one thing someone couldn't have been more right about...........

Butch could change the name of this thread by eliminating "upcoming".

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

this is "going out on top"

[phattymatty]

that guy rules.

[rjs246]

Seriously. Way to go, ass. We should all be so lucky.

[phattymatty]

i bet he took a dump on his desk before he left.

[fansince61]

this is "going out on top"

This guy was a genius.  He knew that giving 125% subprime loans would fail

[Seabiscuit36]

this is "going out on top"

This guy was a genius.  He knew that giving 125% subprime loans would fail

How much money did you make on it?   

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