Political Hippo Circle Jerk - America, farg YEAH!

[Cerevant]

Interesting article - basically, Hillary's only shot is to try to win the popular vote.  She would actually have to take a larger percentage of the delegates remaining than she did before her "big wins" this week to catch up.

Interesting quotes:

I've asked several prominent uncommitted superdelegates if there's any chance they would reverse the will of Democratic voters. They all say no. It would shatter young people and destroy the party.

We know that Hillary is unlikely to quit. This will leave it up to the superdelegates to figure out how to settle on a nominee. With 205 already committed to Obama, he would need another 200 uncommitted superdelegates to get to the magic number of 2025 delegates needed to nominate. But that's only under my crazy pro-Hillary projections. More likely, Obama would need about 50-100 of the approximately 500 uncommitted superdelegates, which shouldn't be too difficult.

[Rome]

Hillary will shatter the party because in her lust for power she only cares about winning.

The more I think of it I really hope she does destroy the party.  They've spent the last seven years cowering at Bush's shadow and as a result they don't deserve a shot to run the country.  Gutless bastiches.

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

The numbers still don't add up for Clinton.

Interesting article - basically, Hillary's only shot is to try to win the popular vote.  She would actually have to take a larger percentage of the delegates remaining than she did before her "big wins" this week to catch up.

Interesting quotes:

I've asked several prominent uncommitted superdelegates if there's any chance they would reverse the will of Democratic voters. They all say no. It would shatter young people and destroy the party.

We know that Hillary is unlikely to quit. This will leave it up to the superdelegates to figure out how to settle on a nominee. With 205 already committed to Obama, he would need another 200 uncommitted superdelegates to get to the magic number of 2025 delegates needed to nominate. But that's only under my crazy pro-Hillary projections. More likely, Obama would need about 50-100 of the approximately 500 uncommitted superdelegates, which shouldn't be too difficult.

Quite.


It would be funny if both major parties were turned on their ears at the same time.  Basically, the Democrats should move left, make it official, and become Socialists.  The Republicans should move right, make it official, and become fascists.  Then, the middle would be open for people that actually want these dumb fargers out of our lives (Libertarians).

[Cerevant]

This is too farging funny:

Here's an idea for an Obama ad: a montage of Clinton's Sybillish personalities that have surfaced during the campaign with a solemn voiceover at the end saying, "Does anyone want this nut answering the phone?"



How is it that she became the one who's perceived as more equipped to answer that 3 a.m. call than the unflappable Obama? He, with the ice in his veins, who doesn't panic when he's losing or get too giddy when he's winning, who's as comfortable in his own skin as she's uncomfortable in hers. There have been times in this campaign when she seemed so unhinged that I worried she'd actually kill herself if she lost. Every day, she reminds me more and more of Adele H., who also had an obsession that drove her insane.

A few weeks ago, I started to feel sorry for her. Oh Christ, let her win already...Who cares...It's not worth it. There's not that much difference between them. She can have it. Anything to avoid watching her descend into madness. So I switched. I started rooting for her. It wasn't that hard. Compromise comes easy to me. I was on board.

And then I saw the ad.

I watched, transfixed, as she took the 3 a.m. call...and I was afraid...very afraid. Suddenly, I realized the last thing this country needs is that woman anywhere near a phone. I don't care if it's 3 a.m. or 10 p.m. or any other time. I don't want her talking to Putin, I don't want her talking to Kim Jong Il, I don't want her talking to my nephew. She needs a long rest. She needs to put on a sarong and some sun block and get away from things for a while, a nice beach somewhere -- somewhere far away, where there are...no phones.

[ice grillin you]

samantha powers resigned

keeps getting worse and worse for barry

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

She said "off the record" that Hillary Clinton is a "monster" that will do anything to win the nomination, and a UK paper printed it.

It's not like she called her a c***.  Hell, if you don't think Hillary's a monster, you're probably retarded.

[ice grillin you]

doesnt matter what you think...its how she spins this and what voters think....and whenever you have to have an advisor resign its not good news

doesnt matter either that it was off the record...did you not see what the nafta thing did to him last week

shes gonna play the hell off of this...play the poor woman getting beat up on thing...how shes a fighter and shes faced worse attacks than this from the republicans...and dont underestimate the black man attacking a white women angle either...that will bother a ton of people


shes a master politician and is eating barrys lunch lately...and his camp can do nothing but stumble and bumble around while they get dominated...hes gotta do something to turn this wave around...i fear that hes in over his head tho and doesnt know what to do

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

hes gotta do something to turn this wave around

Yes, we can.

[PhillyGirl]

Funny how IGY does everything in his power to spin things to his advantage (in making his "predictions" come true).

Hillary's campaign members quit/get fired...and she has blunders galore, but he minimizes them.

But any Obama issue that comes up, becomes HUGE and something he'll NEVER recover from.

[Phanatic]

Hillary ended January $12.6 M in the hole.  That was after burning through over $100M last year.

It is much easier to make a case that Obama has more than enough money.  That said, in a campaign, there are 3 things you can do to help a candidate:
1) Vote for them
2) Volunteer for them
3) Give them money  

I don't think I'd ever feel strong enough about a candidate to give them my money...

[ice grillin you]

Funny how IGY does everything in his power to spin things to his advantage (in making his "predictions" come true).

Hillary's campaign members quit/get fired...and she has blunders galore, but he minimizes them.

But any Obama issue that comes up, becomes HUGE and something he'll NEVER recover from.

she made changes in her camp to turn things around...his resigned because of a personal attack on the opponent

also hillarys problems were when she was getting killed already so she couldnt sink much lower...obamas is losing his front runner status which is a much bigger deal...

and where did i ever say he cant recover...i said he needs to turn this around...hell next week the momentum could be reversed...we are in dog years now where a day in an election is like six weeks

but the fact is right now and over he last week hes been getting steamrolled

[MDS]

the next big election is not until april 22. this thing will die and go away for a bit and the playing field will even out. chill.

[ice grillin you]

irony at its finest...


http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C06EFD61E31F93AA1575BC0A9669C8B63

Mr. Lazio's aides seemed pleased to put the clamor about the tax returns behind them, but the contents of the documents stirred only more conjecture: if there's nothing there, why did he wait so long?

Mr. Lazio pledged to release his tax returns soon after entering the Senate race in May, but had not done so, raising suspicions about whether he had the kind of financial problems that have tripped up other politicians in New York in recent decades.

The campaign of his Democratic opponent, Hillary Rodham Clinton, criticized the delay, asking whether he was hiding something. The State Democratic Party even sent a young campaign worker dressed as Uncle Sam to Mr. Lazio's campaign events, to shout at him to disclose the returns.

[PoopyfaceMcGee]

IGY coincidentally finds something anti-Hillary after being called on consistently defending her.

More proof he cares what we think.

[Cerevant]

the next big election is not until april 22. this thing will die and go away for a bit and the playing field will even out. chill.

  Because only the big states have mattered so far.

Before I natter on, status of my predictions:

Obama will lose a close one in OH.  Ok, it wasn't as close as I hoped.  Probably due to the late smears.

Obama will win TX by 13 delegates  According to CBS he has a 5 delegate lead with 20 TBD

Obama will win RI by < 5% That was dead wrong

Obama will win VT by > 20% Off by 1%

So, the results seem to indicate that Hillary is slowing the Obama freight train, but by how much and for how long?

Without any polls to back up my prediction, I'll have to go out on a limb.  There are 12 delegates up for grabs in WY and 33 in Mississippi.  I predict that Obama will win both states.  I also predict that winning those states will erase the gains (if there are any left, 7 delegates and falling) made by Hillary last Tuesday.
(There were some polls yesterday and today in Mississippi, one shows Obama with a 6% lead, the other shows him with a 24% lead)


That leaves almost a month between Mississippi and PA.  Obama has lots of time and a shteinload of money.  He is currently 15 points back.  I think he will close that gap to at least 5, but I think he needs to find a way to win PA.  Not for the delegates, but to show he can win a big state. 



My biggest concern right now is with the McCain nomination sealed up,  the risk of Republicans crossing lines to skew the results goes up.