the betting thread

Eagles_Legendz · September 29, 2014, 10:24:03 PM

The Pats have still been very good in recent years, even if not at the level they were ten years ago. But there's just nothing I see there right now. They struggled with Oakland and were given a game by Matt Cassell.

Gotta wonder if it tempts Rex to go to Vick because the division is wiiiide open.

Also - the Chiefs may not be terrible. Almost beat Denver and then looked good these last two weeks.

Eagles_Legendz · September 29, 2014, 10:26:09 PM

The over is going to hit just with KC.

PhillyPhreak54 · September 29, 2014, 10:29:03 PM

Rex is gonna be stubborn and stick with Geno I think. He flat out said he's riding with him so to flip a 180 and play Vick he'd be hounded by the NYC press.

However if I were him I'd do it. Gotta save your job and the way Geno is playing ain't saving anyone's job.

Eagles_Legendz · September 29, 2014, 10:29:54 PM

Patriots offensive dvoa in 2012 was #1. #4 in 2013. 24 this year (and that's before tonight - will be bottom five). That's a pretty steep fall. Probably combo of Brady getting older, Oline falling apart, and Gronkowski not recovering to 100%.

PhillyPhreak54 · September 29, 2014, 10:31:47 PM

And Belichick being a complete stubborn stooge when it comes to skill positions

Actually he's been terrible as the personnel guy. The lack of WRs is worse than what Andy was fielding for the Eagles in the early 00's

MDS · September 29, 2014, 10:32:20 PM

im not a big believer in nerd football stats, but what has their SOS been? the afc east always sucks.

Eagles_Legendz · September 29, 2014, 10:39:09 PM

Quote from: MDS on September 29, 2014, 10:32:20 PM
im not a big believer in nerd football stats, but what has their SOS been? the afc east always sucks.

DVOA adjusts for SOS.

They were 3rd in PPG and 7th in YPG last year. Better in 2012. Their offense has been very good and it has completely fallen apart.

MDS · September 29, 2014, 10:41:15 PM

i guess this is a numbers vs. eyes thing

a true havas moral debate

Eagles_Legendz · September 29, 2014, 10:58:17 PM

This is why parlays are a bad thing.

PhillyPhreak54 · September 29, 2014, 11:33:28 PM

So bad yet so enticing

And when one hits it's awesome

Eagles_Legendz · September 29, 2014, 11:34:14 PM

looked pretty good at 17-0 with pats O doing zero

PhillyPhreak54 · September 29, 2014, 11:45:59 PM

I had a five teamer two weeks ago looking beautiful and was about to jerk it right in the sports book and then it crumbled thanks to LSU. Sad face

PhillyPhreak54 · September 30, 2014, 12:02:58 AM

5D has opened the Pats as +2.5 home dogs for SNF against Cincy

I just took NE....i don't ever recall them being home dogs.

Eagles_Legendz · September 30, 2014, 12:17:55 AM

It was NE -3 on vegasinsider yesterday. Guess tonight swung it pretty hard.

PhillyPhreak54 · September 30, 2014, 12:32:36 AM

Yeah that's why I jumped on it and I hope it gets to +3.5 and then I will hammer down even more.

Classic overreaction line move...Pats look like shtein and face an undefeated team coming off a bye.

As bad as NE looked I think that should help Pats bettors because I cannot see them coming out so flat again. And Cincy hasn't earned my trust all the way yet