the betting thread

[rjs246]

I just read that 97% of sports bettors lose money. That can't be right. Is that right?

I've been betting incredibly, laughably, retardedly small amounts (literally $1-$5 bets) over the last six months of the nba season and have done pretty well, getting about a 15% ROI. So I'm up like $500. That didn't strike me as some great achievement but having read that basically everyone loses money I'm wondering if I've stumbled on something worth sharing or if my recent obsession with the nba has given me just enough info to eke out a bunch of winning bets.

Anyway, talking about sports gambling is way more interesting than talking about farging baseball so let's talk about sports gambling ok ready go.

[Diomedes]

The only think I know about betting is to avoid it.  Oh, and Phreak says you can make money at it.

What I don't get about your comment is, if you've stumbled onto something, why would you share it?  Wouldn't that hasten the end of a good thing?

[rjs246]

I'm not superstitious. And it isn't like I've got some super secret system to make everyone rich and put the books out of business. I was just stunned to learn that 97% of bettors lose. How is that even possible when so many bets are 55/45 propositions? (I know how it's possible, shut up, it still seems like an incredibly high number.)

[Diomedes]

If I started betting, the figure would be 98%.

[PhillyPhreak54]

I'm not superstitious. And it isn't like I've got some super secret system to make everyone rich and put the books out of business. I was just stunned to learn that 97% of bettors lose. How is that even possible when so many bets are 55/45 propositions? (I know how it's possible, shut up, it still seems like an incredibly high number.)

I haven't heard the 97% number and it strikes me as high.

However I wouldn't be shocked if that number was 85%-90%. The ones who make money are disciplined and do not fire off bets every day or bet every game on the board. Once you start doing that the variance and vig will eat yo ass up.

Also a lot of people bet the teasers and parlays. Its ok to take a shot here and there but they'll eat your bankroll up quick too if you fire away all day on them.

As much as Dio doesn't believe it - it is possible to make a nice little chunk on the side betting sports. The last few years have been in the black for me. I certainly lose bets and have had losing years but I track all my plays. And as I get older I refine my processes. For example I look for reverse line movement. That has been a big thing for me. Or by following people on social media who show what percentage of bets and money is on a certain team - and going with who the books need. They win more oftentimes than not - so if I am aligned with who a book needs i like my chances.

In baseball the favorites have been killing it - so once you see a trend follow it til its broken. Two Friday's ago (or maybe three now) MLB Faves that day went 14-0.

There are a few gambling forums I lurk on and I see what those people bet and I see a lot of losses.

[rjs246]

Nice. I have been dipping my toe in this year out of sheer boredom and started out extremely raw with no idea what I was doing. Applying my bottomless nerdiness to figuring things out has been fun.

I have to say that the huge number of prop bets and alternate lines available on the various apps, which were originally kind of overwhelming, have been a direct contributor to winning because I don't mind reviewing available bets until I find a no-brainer and I don't mind betting alternate lines for less money. I am definitely not a swing for the fences bettor and I think that's helped. Regardless, I've got a ton to learn but risking very little to win a little has been a fun experiment.

Now excuse me while I go on a five year losing streak and you never hear from me again.

[PhillyPhreak54]

Lol

Yeah man you're doing it right. Not going all in and not getting greedy is the discipline needed. Sure there will be times where you're comfortable where you'll fire off a big one. But it'll be because you're trusting your method or experience when you see an instance where a big bet is warranted.

The cool thing is you've got a multitude of ways to find your edge. I'm not an analytics guy so I don't look at things that way but I know some who are big time into it and they find their edges that way.

Good point on the prop bets. Now that gambling is legal in most places the are infinite levels of props to find. Unlike me living in the dark ages of Texas where gambling will probably never get legalized - I use offshore books. Most of those don't have the wide array of props like the legal states books do. I like to fiddle with them when I'm visiting back in PA.

I've only ever really done props at SB time. And sometimes you find some really loose lines there. I've seen a lot of them posted on Twitter.

For example when the Eagles were in the SB one that I bet a nice chunk on was whether Blount would score a TD or not. I put quite a bit on that. But combing through 30 pages of props to find juicy ones is fun.

[rjs246]

I've been stunned at some of the individual prop bets I've found. It's nice to bet on a player to get 10+ points in an nba game at +410 and have them hit it with room to spare before halftime.

With all the apps you can compare lines and get better odds on the same bet. And the parlay possibilities are endless, which is occasionally my downfall, but when I keep it limited and round-robin the parlay I find that I usually break even and when the whole thing hits it's a very nice windfall.

[PhillyPhreak54]

Nice.

Wait til college FB rolls around. And college hoops too for that matter. There are so many games that you'll find loose lines like crazy.

A few times I've ridden a team throughout a season bc the odds were just so good weekly. One year it was LaTech and another was Kansas State and Western Kentucky.

[rjs246]

A few times I've ridden a team throughout a season bc the odds were just so good weekly.

Ha. This was Drake for me this past year. farging Drake won me so many bets. Tiny, insignificant bets. But a whole lot of them.

[phattymatty]

I put $10 on Soto to have the longest HR and he just crushed a 520 footer. +800

Also +1900 on ohtani to beat story in the final. Lining up right so far.

[phattymatty]

Ok that second bet did not work out lol

[PhillyPhreak54]

I have $20 on Mancini

I was hoping Alonso would make a fool of himself but he's crushing it

[rjs246]

Ok so these are definitely things I would not seriously bet on.

[rjs246]

One nice thing about the Bucks win is that I cashed out my +3600 bet on the Suns to win it all. The cash out paid about +2600. Felt pretty silly after game two. Seems much smarter now.