2011 Philadelphia Phillies Season Thread (choking awful pos team, DIAF)

lurking wierdo · August 11, 2011, 12:10:45 PM

Runs produced is a real stat and it is what really matters offensively. Home runs are actually SUBTRACTED from the number. It is more important to produce runs than steal a base or hit a 2 out double and get left on base. It's that simple.

Eagles_Legendz · August 11, 2011, 12:29:26 PM

Quote from: lurking wierdo on August 11, 2011, 12:10:45 PM
Runs produced is a real stat and it is what really matters offensively. Home runs are actually SUBTRACTED from the number. It is more important to produce runs than steal a base or hit a 2 out double and get left on base. It's that simple.

You really don't know much about baseball if you think he's had a better offensive year.

I understand what runs produced is. It is entirely dependent on your position in the batting order and your games played. Victorino has played 26 less games than Howard, and would probably still be higher than Howard in a stat as dependent on RBI production as that one is if he had played the same number of games.

The most important offensive statistic is the combination of getting on base AND hitting for power. When it comes to hitters who don't rely solely on speed (and especially at positions where power is expected), OPS is the single most important offensive stat because it summarizes whether you're doing what you're supposed to well (getting on base and hitting for power). Like I said, Victorino is doing every single thing better than Howard this year. Ironically I like Howard more than Victorino, but they really aren't even in the same category this year. It isn't close. Sorry.

lurking wierdo · August 11, 2011, 12:45:58 PM

That sabermetrics shtein was valid for about an hour. It comes down to bashing balls over the fence. Howard will hit 40+ HRs, score 100 runs and Drive in 130+ runs. I can't see how that won't be in the MVP running.

The funny thing is, I am a Victorino fan. He brings a lot to the team. But, looking at an MVP, by the time it's over Howard's final numbers will put him way ahead.

Earl Weaver, who was (is) a great baseball man lived and died with great pitching and the 3 run homer.

And id you want to still choose the OPS nonsense, filter that with runners in scoring position or runners in scoring position with 2 outs. While Victorino is still solid there, Howard tops him by at least 100 points in each. Why is that you may ask? Because Ryan Howard is a run producer.

Sgt PSN · August 11, 2011, 12:55:06 PM

Through 117 games, Ryan Howard has hit 25 home runs. Saying that he will hit 15+ in the final 45 games when he's on pace to hit 35 is pretty farging dumb. Sure, he could get hot and get over the 40 mark (and if he does, the credit goes to Hunter Pence) but to say it as if it's a foregone conclussion shows just how dumb you really are.

Hawk · August 11, 2011, 12:57:32 PM

Who is a bigger legend, Lurking or Munson?

Eagles_Legendz · August 11, 2011, 01:00:25 PM

OPS is sabremetrics? Really?

Onbase % and slugging %? You're not serious right?

Not like I'm throwing around WAR or VORP (which, for good measure, he is still dominating Howard in).

Sgt PSN · August 11, 2011, 01:03:03 PM

Quote from: lurking wierdo on August 11, 2011, 12:45:58 PM
And id you want to still choose the OPS nonsense, filter that with runners in scoring position or runners in scoring position with 2 outs. While Victorino is still solid there, Howard tops him by at least 100 points in each. Why is that you may ask? Because Ryan Howard is a run producer.

Holy shtein....are you comparing hits w/risp between a guy who bats 2nd and a guy who bats 4th? Vic has about 1/2 of the ab's w/risp than choke does. Choke does have significantly better numbers w/risp. However, their numbers are practically identical w/risp 2 outs. Choke still nearly has him doubled up on ab's but the production is very similar.

Eagles_Legendz · August 11, 2011, 01:10:38 PM

Howard is a vital member of the offense but people are seriously overlooking the year Victorino is having.

lurking wierdo · August 11, 2011, 01:12:02 PM

Quote from: Sgt PSN on August 11, 2011, 01:03:03 PM
Quote from: lurking wierdo on August 11, 2011, 12:45:58 PM
And id you want to still choose the OPS nonsense, filter that with runners in scoring position or runners in scoring position with 2 outs. While Victorino is still solid there, Howard tops him by at least 100 points in each. Why is that you may ask? Because Ryan Howard is a run producer.

Holy shtein....are you comparing hits w/risp between a guy who bats 2nd and a guy who bats 4th? Vic has about 1/2 of the ab's w/risp than choke does. Choke does have significantly better numbers w/risp. However, their numbers are practically identical w/risp 2 outs. Choke still nearly has him doubled up on ab's but the production is very similar.

No, OPS with runners in scoring position. It's a PERCENTAGE. It is not dependent on opportunities.

It's funny how the board's general disdain for Howard (Choke) colors the judgement. It's that "Philly type player" nonsense. As Victorino is viewed as a hustler and blue collar type player and Howard is not, Shane is much more respected. Even if you look at the fact that the Phil's would not have been NEARLY as successful from 2007-2010 without Howard as opposed to without Victorino you are blinded by his dirty uniform. HOMERUNS AND RBI's coupled with great pitching are what win the WS.

Eagles_Legendz · August 11, 2011, 01:18:30 PM

Dude its power and getting on base. Its that simple. Power isnt all home runs (see: doubles/triples etc). Victorino has a higher slugging percentage and gets on base more. What is so hard about that to understand? It has nothing to do with their style of play. I don't even find Victorino to be likeable but he is putting up an mvp caliber year. Howard isnt.

lurking wierdo · August 11, 2011, 01:31:40 PM

Number 1, triples are not really a power number as much as a speed number, but they do affect slugging pctg.

Number 2. Getting on base is not that important. There I said it. Getting on base situationally is.

Number 3. Being on the field counts for a lot!

Hypothetically speaking Howard could and I believe will put up:

40 HRs 130 RBI OPS 850 Runs 90 .265 Avg

Victorino

20 HR 65 RBI OPS 900 Runs 100 .310 Avg

Who had the better year?

There was a comment about Pence helping Howard, if that's the case, Utley is helped by Howard, so you can attribute some of his success to 6.

MDS · August 11, 2011, 01:35:40 PM

why is he in here now

Eagles_Legendz · August 11, 2011, 01:52:16 PM

I give up. Congrats.

Rome · August 11, 2011, 01:58:00 PM

Shut the farg up. [/Russell]

Eagles_Legendz · August 11, 2011, 02:09:11 PM

Player A:
runs 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
139 38 20 30 94 41 6 49 85 .296 .344 .531 .875

Player B:
runs 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
130 36 22 22 75 28 5 71 75 .310 .391 .542 .932

You tell me whether Player A's 19 extra RBIs and 8 extra HRs are enough to offset player B hitting for higher average and getting on base at a significantly higher rate (thus leading to more RBI opportunities etc for people behind him in the lineup---i.e. giving people the chance to drive him in).