The Weather Thread

[Sgt PSN]

can't wait to load snow into the back of the truck and not have a garage to worry about 

lolz. 

[shorebird]

Oh my, I'm in the dark purple.

[ice grillin you]

10%: Less than 1"
15%: 1-3"
15%: 3-7"
35%: 7-14"
15%: 14-21"
10%: 21"+

[DH]

A dorky buddy of mine who works at noaa.gov just sent me this:

As I suspected, the early morning model runs were missing key initial
conditions which resulted in a more southerly storm track and weaker
storm than is now currently being anticipated. All the key pieces are
"on the board" for a MAJOR winter snow event for Mid Atlantic. At this
time, the National Weather Service is "only" calling for 3-7". This is
a significant underestimate and I expect major warnings to go up in
the next few hours (coming out around 1 pm I would guess).

This storm will be starting earnestly between 11 am and 1 pm tomorrow
(lighter snows expected before this). Snow will begin falling rapidly
thereafter and accumulations will begin immediately. Road crews will
only be able to keep up with this early on (say between 3-6
pm) but then
the combination of accumulating snows and high winds will begin to
make travel difficult and then hazardous. I am expecting 10"-14"
or more in
total. 5-6" by about 7 pm (more to the south) and continuing
throughout Saturday night. Total amounts are irrelevent since strong
winds will be blowing the snow all over the place making it impossible
for  road crews to keep up, especially overnight. Once staffs are in
place Saturday afternoon, they need to be prepared for few
reinforcements (morning staffs may NOT be able to get in Sunday
morning).

Normally, such a strong storm would draw in warm air from over the
ocean ESPECIALLY at this time of the year. This will NOT happen as the
storm will be occluded (wrapped around itself) thus not drawing in air
from outside of the system. In addition, as the storm explodes
(strengthens
rapidly) it will slow to a crawl which could make my 10-14"
prediction
seem tame. We could easily get more than that.

The key now, however, is to focus on the timing. Travel will be
DANGEROUS tomorrow afternoon through much of early Sunday.
Be prepared
to hunker down. NO TRAVEL will be worth the risk. Get your chores done
today and EARLY tomorrow keeping in mind that a lot of people will be
doing the same.

I will tweak this forecast if necessary later tonight and, perhaps,
early tomorrow morning. It is always possible for models to "bust" but
this event has been carefully watched for the past 5-6 days and,
although the models did not pick this up until recently, model
tendencies (errors) whereby such a storm pattern could be missed early
on were noted early this week and this scenario was being discussed
quietly in meteorological circles. Thus it came as no surprise when
this monster "suddenly" appeared in the model solutions. So confidence
is high.

[BigEd76]

lol that is completely different from accuweather and weather.com...saying 2-4 and 3-5 inches in the Cherry Hill area.

Action News just said 6"-12" for our area

[mpmcgraw]

So weatherman igy what are you predictions for South Jersey and the Poconos?   

I'm going skiing Sunday.   

[Susquehanna Birder]

A dorky buddy of mine who works at noaa.gov just sent me this:

I appreciate that. This is his view for the Philly area?

I'm not sure what we're expecting for the middle-o-the-state, but I need to determine if it's worth risking lives for a couple of hours on the turnpike on Sunday morning.

[Eagles_Legendz]

I shelled out a grand for 4 sick tickets to the game this weekend.  I'm walking 25 miles to the stadium if I have to.

[LBIggle]

thats what i'm saying.. luckily i only live a few miles off of the expwy/42 which should be paved by then.

the airport is directly behind my house though. i might be walking over there and renting a plane to fly into philly.  nice and expensive.  thank you mother nature.

[DH]

Sus - He is based in Trenton, so I'm guessing that will be the forecast for that area plus Bucks County...Sunday will be fine; aside from the driving part.

[PhillyPhreak54]

You lucky fargs.

I'd gladly trade my mid-60's and sun for a major snowstorm.

[MDS]

you can have the 1 great snowstorm every 15 years, ill take the warm weather and mexicans

[Seabiscuit36]

we're supposed to get another big one at the end of February according to the farmers almanac

[ice grillin you]

this storm will be very similar to the pre 2005 nfc championship game storm so getting to the game will not be a problem at all unless youre a bitch

im driving from maryland ON SATURDAY

[phillymic2000]

we got 13" inches of heavy ass wet snow and 40 mph. winds last week. Calm the farg down people.