The Weather Thread

[Rome]

We are getting slammed next weekend.  No two ways about it now. 

[Geowhizzer]

I might have oceanfront property after this... or just ocean property.  We're still not dried from the last soaking.

[PhillyPhreak54]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145912.shtml?gm_track#contents

Looks like it's flattened out its course and could nick Florida on its way into the gulf

[QB Eagles]

It has a lot of interaction with Caribbean land coming up, and there's another hurricane brewing behind it and some weird meteorological stuff in front of it, both of which could affect direction. It's a complex situation that is likely to keep changing.

All that can be legitimately be said about the US at this point is that it's likely to affect some part of Florida. Not even necessarily hit. And it could be the Keys, could be the panhandle, could be Jacksonville. We'll know a lot better in 24 hours.

In the meantime it looks terrible for the Virgin Islands and the other Leewards.

[PhillyPhreak54]

It seems if it stays on course now it hits extreme southern Texas around the border

But you're right it has obstacles coming up that will likely affect that path

If Houston catches another hurricane the city will be done for a long while.

[Rome]

They never know where it's going.  There's too many variables.  The best thing to do is to formulate a plan and then adapt as it gets closer.  If they tell you to leave, get the farg out. 

[PhillyPhreak54]

True

I'll leave for this one. Whether I fly home or drive to San Antonio or Dallas I'm not sure

[QB Eagles]

It should take a hard turn north long before it reaches Texas. Real unlikely to follow Harvey.

[Geowhizzer]

They never know where it's going.  There's too many variables.  The best thing to do is to formulate a plan and then adapt as it gets closer.  If they tell you to leave, get the farg out.

Pretty much.   We're using part of our Labor Day to check and test our supplies and figure out what we need to restock. 

[Rome]

We have our bug-out kit.  I'm not farging around plus my wife and I are both first responders now so we can't go very far anyway.   Off the barrier island in case of a direct hit is our plan but this doesn't appear to be likely in this one. 

I have $1,000 in cash plus two blank credit cards in case I need to rent a place indefinitely.  Our safe is portable and all of our valuables fit in it perfectly. 

[Geowhizzer]

We're not too close to the coast (probably about 15 miles as the crow flies), so we're mostly OK as far as storm surge goes.  If it's getting to us, say good-bye to Naples anyway.

We do have a shteinload of canals and land that by nature should be swampland.  I have a canal within two miles on every side, and they're already high from the last rains.  A major rain event could have the Everglades reclaiming it's rightful territory pretty quickly.

If we get the word, we're out of here.  Probably head to Georgia

[MDS]

It seems if it stays on course now it hits extreme southern Texas around the border

!! my people

[Rome]

Cat 5 now.  175 mph max sustained winds.  Oy vey. 

[QB Eagles]

Still very possible that this motherfarger turns out to sea after touring the Bahamas. Also still very possible that it scores a direct hit on Miami, Tampa, or Charleston as a Cat 4 beast. Nowhere between New Orleans and the Outer Banks can breathe easy yet. Worst place in the US to be at this point is probably the Keys -- time to GTFO before the Overseas Highway becomes a parking lot.

The media will be hyping US landfall for the next several days, but the Caribbean is really getting the shtein end of this one. It's going to kill people there for sure, and for the most part, Americans won't care.

Worst news is how much larger the hurricane has gotten. The area exposed to hurricane force winds is going to be much larger than it looked a few days ago.

[QB Eagles]

Phreak, instead of Irma, worry about that shtein developing in your backyard there. Also, good chance we see Jose coming up behind Irma today or tomorrow.