16-17 Sixers Season Thread

[QB Eagles]

Kings will end the night at 8 if all goes well, the Mavs are about to close out a victory, just need the Clippers to acquiesce and play a little bit. 10% chance at top 3.

[rjs246]

So if I'm reading this right the sixers have a 47% chance of a top three pick (theirs or the Kings') and a 53% chance of getting the Lakers' pick. So they'll somehow get neither but still, nice job with the tank, team.

[Don Ho]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19146930/joel-embiid-philadelphia-76ers-says-knee-bad-originally-thought

[ice grillin you]

So if I'm reading this right the sixers have a 47% chance of a top three pick (theirs or the Kings') and a 53% chance of getting the Lakers' pick. So they'll somehow get neither but still, nice job with the tank, team.

this is splitting hairs and im not even sure im correct on this but i think its 45% for a top 3 pick....because i dont think you can take the kings odds at the full amount cause in theory the sixers could get the second pick and the kings could get the third and therefore the kings pick wouldnt mean anything...but either way its 45-47%

lakers pick is 53%

first overall is 15% this is 3% better than it should be because of the kings

two top 5 picks is 40% which is an amazingly high percentage for the potential payoff

[MDS]

chart

[QB Eagles]

I ran all the probabilities. It agrees with MDS' chart.

Some more things:

- Overall the Sixers have a 8.6% chance of swapping with the Kings (including a 0.15% chance of sending them the #7 for the #1).
- There's a 2.4% chance the Sixers get both the #1 and #4

Odds of bad stuff:
- 54.7% to have no picks in the top 3
- 31.0% to have no picks in the top 4
- 3.8% to have no picks in the top 5
- They can't be stuck with only #7
- Worst case scenario of #6 only: 3.0%

[ice grillin you]

qb could you figure out what the % chance of just one of the following happening is?

sixers get a top 3 pick
sixers get lakers pick
sixers get first overall pick
sixers get two top 5 picks

[QB Eagles]

sixers get first overall pick

Can't figure it out, math is too complicated

[ice grillin you]

well whatever it is thats the % chance that i will be happy on lottery night.....i just need one those and im good

[QB Eagles]

Oh you mean the chance of any those things happening, all combined? Thought you were farging with me by asking what the odds of #1 overall was. It's gonna be pretty good odds to get at least one of those.

[ice grillin you]

right....the % chance that just one of those things happen

[QB Eagles]

It's 30.5% to get stuck with one pick and have it fall outside the top 3, that's what I would consider a bad lottery night. 20.6% to have one pick and it's outside the top 4.

[ice grillin you]

so its too difficult too figure out what im asking?

[QB Eagles]

That is what you asked. Odds of getting either top 3 or a Laker pick is 100 - 30.5 = 69.5%. Getting two top 5 picks implies they got a Laker pick. And if the Sixers get the #1 overall, they are also in the top 3.

[ice grillin you]

It's 30.5% to get stuck with one pick and have it fall outside the top 3, that's what I would consider a bad lottery night.

that happening and the pick being below four would be really bad

theres a whole bunch of different levels of joy or pain that could happen with all the possibilities but basically if anything happens where they get the #1 overall i will be peeing on my furniture

next level is those other things i mentioned and any of them would be parade worthy

then there would be status quo....you stay at four and dont get the lakers pick...i would be ok with this...of course a little disappointed but that would be washed away with the thought that at least it could have been a castarophe

which bring you to anything less than the above....this is murder suicide territory