Man made global warming is real.

Started by Diomedes, January 23, 2007, 11:37:52 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

Eaglez

The infamous Newsweek Article on Global Cooling (1975)

http://denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm

Seemingly, it did cool between 1945-68, dropping by what I think the article cites at 1/2 a degree C.

I've seen some graphs (Wiki) that show the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age were not as intense at what is purportedly happening now, but the evidence that it did occur and was relatively severe in effect and lasted for an incredibly long periods of time lend credence to the notion that natural variations are real and need to be accounted for when viewing these doomsday scenarios. For all we know we could just be going through a greater spike now with possible cooling later. If you extrapolate data from the past it seems plausible just as plausible as catastrophic global warming if not more plausible.

Also, I would argue that society can better gauge temperature variations now than we could even 30 years ago. The data is more likely getting more precise. When more precise data is weighed against older data that did not have the benefit of modern technology it might show a greater disparity. 100 years ago you had mercury thermometers and other archaic temperature measuring mechanisms subject to human recording error -- today you have weather satellites that have numerous data points throughout the world that can better accurately gauge temperature variation. Just comparing the two data sets could lead to great disparity and error.

Is there global warming? Sure. Its been documented and the data sets have gotten better with newer technology. But is it completely human driven and would lead to the end of mankind? I don't think so.  Could humans maybe have something to do with it? Sure. It is definitely plausible. I just think the hysteria from the likes of Al Gore and Co. is completely unwarranted yet they are being fawned over as the only game in town.

Eaglez

Quote from: Cerevant on July 11, 2007, 02:49:05 PM
Quote from: Eaglez on July 11, 2007, 01:45:28 PM
That's interesting. I would like to hear a rebuttal, or see it researched more to make sure the data adds up, then it would be very compelling.

That's the problem I have with most of the anti-global warming crap: it is just one scientist here and there spouting off to the press.  The global report that started this thread was based on the combined research of hundreds of scientists.  The article above was based on something published in a peer-reviewed journal.  As this article points out, the global cooling bullshtein was based on conveniently ignoring the data prior to 1980 - yeah, that's great science.

Like I said, it sounds like its good research, but I would still like to hear from the scientists that conducted the original research on the sun spots and see if they have a rebuttal. I think that's fair and it advances good science if each report is viewed critically. Plus, even if the sun spot theory falls by the wayside it doesn't prove catastrophic man made global warming. It just dismisses one way temperatures naturally variate.

And since when is groupthink all of a sudden a good thing? I don't think purportedly hundreds of scientists necessarily makes it good research. It has been well-documented that the IPCC report used names of scientists that did not approve of the analysis and conclusions in that document yet were put on there anyways. I'd rather look at how plausible the theory seems to be in light of previous fluctuations and disparities in data sets.

It is not easy to make forecasts 50 years into the future. There is a high margin of error especially in light of the amount of reliable data that is available. You need very complex algorithms in order to even attempt to make such projections. I don't like the arrogance that "everything is figured out" when they only have a relatively small amount of reliable data.


rjs246

The issue here is simple. No one wants to believe that we're destroying the planet. So we come up with every possible explanation for why it isn't our fault and justify our unwillingness to change. It's natural. It's human instinct to deflect blame away from ourselves.

But the fact is that ALL of the peer-reviewed scientific research says that the environmental shifts are directly related to human behavior.

Now I'm still not going to change my ways, because frankly I don't care that much, but to try so hard to argue against mountains of scientific evidence (evidence that has ZERO scientifically supported counter-point) just to make ourselves feel better about driving SUVs and leaving the AC on for 7 months a year is laughable.
Is rjs gonna have to choke a bitch?

Let them eat bootstraps.

Geowhizzer

Quote from: rjs246 on July 11, 2007, 03:09:27 PM
The issue here is simple. No one wants to believe that we're destroying the planet. So we come up with every possible explanation for why it isn't our fault and justify our unwillingness to change. It's natural. It's human instinct to deflect blame away from ourselves.

But the fact is that ALL of the peer-reviewed scientific research says that the environmental shifts are directly related to human behavior.

Now I'm still not going to change my ways, because frankly I don't care that much, but to try so hard to argue against mountains of scientific evidence (evidence that has ZERO scientifically supported counter-point) just to make ourselves feel better about driving SUVs and leaving the AC on for 7 months a year is laughable.

I leave the AC on 11½ months a year.

Father Demon

Quote from: Geowhizzer on July 11, 2007, 03:11:38 PM
Quote from: rjs246 on July 11, 2007, 03:09:27 PM
The issue here is simple. No one wants to believe that we're destroying the planet. So we come up with every possible explanation for why it isn't our fault and justify our unwillingness to change. It's natural. It's human instinct to deflect blame away from ourselves.

But the fact is that ALL of the peer-reviewed scientific research says that the environmental shifts are directly related to human behavior.

Now I'm still not going to change my ways, because frankly I don't care that much, but to try so hard to argue against mountains of scientific evidence (evidence that has ZERO scientifically supported counter-point) just to make ourselves feel better about driving SUVs and leaving the AC on for 7 months a year is laughable.

I leave the AC on 11½ months a year.

2 weeks vacation up in Yankeeville?
The drawback to marital longevity is your wife always knows when you're really interested in her and when you're just trying to bury it.

Geowhizzer

#530
Quote from: Father Demon on July 11, 2007, 03:15:25 PM
Quote from: Geowhizzer on July 11, 2007, 03:11:38 PM
Quote from: rjs246 on July 11, 2007, 03:09:27 PM
The issue here is simple. No one wants to believe that we're destroying the planet. So we come up with every possible explanation for why it isn't our fault and justify our unwillingness to change. It's natural. It's human instinct to deflect blame away from ourselves.

But the fact is that ALL of the peer-reviewed scientific research says that the environmental shifts are directly related to human behavior.

Now I'm still not going to change my ways, because frankly I don't care that much, but to try so hard to argue against mountains of scientific evidence (evidence that has ZERO scientifically supported counter-point) just to make ourselves feel better about driving SUVs and leaving the AC on for 7 months a year is laughable.

I leave the AC on 11½ months a year.


2 weeks vacation up in Yankeeville?

No, the two week cool-down we jokingly call "winter."

Eaglez

Quote from: rjs246 on July 11, 2007, 03:09:27 PM
The issue here is simple. No one wants to believe that we're destroying the planet. So we come up with every possible explanation for why it isn't our fault and justify our unwillingness to change. It's natural. It's human instinct to deflect blame away from ourselves.

But the fact is that ALL of the peer-reviewed scientific research says that the environmental shifts are directly related to human behavior.

Now I'm still not going to change my ways, because frankly I don't care that much, but to try so hard to argue against mountains of scientific evidence (evidence that has ZERO scientifically supported counter-point) just to make ourselves feel better about driving SUVs and leaving the AC on for 7 months a year is laughable.

I disagree with your main premise (there is no scientific support for other theories), but that's fine. I'm not trying to rationalize anything. I don't drive an SUV or do "environmentally destructive behavior". I don't consume much energy (I like in a small studio and I barely run the air conditioner) so it is not about rationalizing my behavior. I respond to economic incentives (the price of gas has obviously went up, so the next car I'm looking at will probably be an economy car like a Yaris or Honda Fit). It is just that "all the scientific research" that you believe is so compelling and infallible is just not that compelling to me.

Making conclusions now and implementing the policies of the likes of Al Gore will lead to dire economic consequences later on. And I'm not willing to make that trade off and relegate the world to economic stagnation and lower standards of living. The Industrial Revolution may have put a lot of carbon in the atmosphere, but it paved the way to the technological advancements that we all enjoy today and are an indispensable part of humanity.

I won't be surprised if in 10-20 years global cooling makes a comeback. But we'll see.


Rome

Quote from: Geowhizzer on July 11, 2007, 03:17:31 PM
No, the two week cool-down we jokingly call "winter."

It's amazing how different the weather is in Naples compared to Daytona.  It was flat-out cold as a motherfarger a lot last winter.  I went through almost 300 gallons of fuel oil and that's about twice what we usually use.


Geowhizzer

Quote from: Jerome99RIP on July 11, 2007, 03:29:59 PM
Quote from: Geowhizzer on July 11, 2007, 03:17:31 PM
No, the two week cool-down we jokingly call "winter."

It's amazing how different the weather is in Naples compared to Daytona.  It was flat-out cold as a motherfarger a lot last winter.  I went through almost 300 gallons of fuel oil and that's about twice what we usually use.



I think we put the actual heater on less than 5 times all winter (nights where the low temp got into the 30s to low 40s).  I wouldn't have run it at all, but my wife was cold, so of course the kid was, too (you're married, you know how that works).  I don't think we ever put the heat above 68.

My main problem is that my body seems to run about 5-10 degrees hotter than anyone else.  If the high temp reaches 80, I want the damn A/C on.  And in Naples, it reaches 80 degrees at least 300+ days a year.  My students at school always complain about how cold my classroom is.  I tell them I'm part polar bear.  We usually have the A/C set at 75.  I'd rather it be 72, but I'm trying to sacrifice for the environment.   :D

PoopyfaceMcGee

Another celebrity making a big difference a la Sheryl Crow's one-sheet-of-TP promise:

QuoteOscar winner Cate Blanchett has stopped washing her hair in an effort to do her bit to save the environment and become a green example to her kids. The actress admits she has installed timers all around her home to restrict energy levels - and one is even on her shower head. Now she's no longer washing her hair, Blanchett has realised, "I only need to have a two minute shower." She adds, "I went to a website and my husband was laughing at me because a box arrived with 30 timers, and I thought, 'Excellent, stocking fillers!'" The Babel star has decided to do as much as she can to save energy after a recent visit to drought-ravaged Lake Samonsvale, north of Brisbane, Australia. She tells the Sydney Daily Telegraph, "I'm extremely concerned about climate change as a mother, because I want to ensure for my children a very safe and sustainable future. It's great to see my children engaged in these things, like when you put the water on when you put the toothbrush under the tap, you turn it off the minute you take it out and you don't let the water run." The Australian star has also limited her car use and has switched her household power supply to green power.

Wingspan

Quote from: FastFreddie on August 07, 2007, 01:29:59 PM
Another celebrity making a big difference a la Sheryl Crow's one-sheet-of-TP promise:

QuoteOscar winner Cate Blanchett has stopped washing her hair in an effort to do her bit to save the environment and become a green example to her kids. The actress admits she has installed timers all around her home to restrict energy levels - and one is even on her shower head. Now she's no longer washing her hair, Blanchett has realised, "I only need to have a two minute shower." She adds, "I went to a website and my husband was laughing at me because a box arrived with 30 timers, and I thought, 'Excellent, stocking fillers!'" The Babel star has decided to do as much as she can to save energy after a recent visit to drought-ravaged Lake Samonsvale, north of Brisbane, Australia. She tells the Sydney Daily Telegraph, "I'm extremely concerned about climate change as a mother, because I want to ensure for my children a very safe and sustainable future. It's great to see my children engaged in these things, like when you put the water on when you put the toothbrush under the tap, you turn it off the minute you take it out and you don't let the water run." The Australian star has also limited her car use and has switched her household power supply to green power.

You read femalefirst.co.uk too? Cool.
Connection Problems

Sorry, SMF was unable to connect to the database. This may be caused by the server being busy. Please try again later.

SD_Eagle5

Along those same lines:
QuoteComedian LARRY DAVID has found an advantage to being single again following his recent split from his environmentalist wife - he can turn all the lights on at home. The Curb Your Enthusiasm star separated from his An Inconvenient Truth producer spouse Laurie, his wife of 14 years, in early June (07). She has since filed for divorce. He says, "After the split, I went home and turned all the lights on."

PoopyfaceMcGee


Tomahawk

Last night PBS told me scientists recently measured the largest iceberg in history. We're all dead.

MDS

I guess the ice will be grillin us.

Ban?
Zero hour, Michael. It's the end of the line. I'm the firstborn. I'm sick of playing second fiddle. I'm always third in line for everything. I'm tired of finishing fourth. Being the fifth wheel. There are six things I'm mad about, and I'm taking over.